It’s tough to say. It used to be the case many years ago that Stern admissions was predictable. Generally people that had 1500+ (M+V) SAT and 3.8+ GPA usually got in. But things are different now
I’ve seen people w/ 2300+ and 3.8+ get rejected and <2150 and 3.5 GPA get accepted so it can really go either way - hard to really chance. It would say its a reach for anyone that applies so couldn’t hurt to apply ED if sure you like NYU
Not more than 6/7 years ago the acceptance rate used to be high teens / low 20s. Now it hovers around 12 - 13%