I cannot give the odds, but consider UCB a Reach school.
UC’s use only 10-11th grades in their GPA calculation. As an OOS applicant, only AP/IB or DE courses count for the extra honors points in the calculation. HS designated Honors do not count for the extra Honors points.
Here is a handy UC GPA calculator: https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/
UCB will consider your UW UC GPA, Capped Weighted UC GPA and Fully Weighted UC GPA
Make sure you exceed the minimum a-g course requirements for the UC’s along with taking the recommended SAT II subject tests for UCB depending upon your major.
https://www.ucop.edu/agguide/a-g-requirements/
Also look at the Freshman Profile to determine how you compare:
https://admissions.berkeley.edu/student-profile
LOR’s are not a given for UCB, since they will invite applicants to submit them and it is only a small percentage.
Here is what UCB looks for in their application review:
- Very important: Academic GPA, Application essay, Rigor of secondary school record, Standardized test scores
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Important: Extracurricular activities, Volunteer work, Work experience -
Considered: Character/personal qualities, First generation college student, State residency -
Note: Thorough review of academic performance; likely contribution to intellectual and cultural vitality of the campus; diversity in personal background and experience; demonstrated qualities in leadership, motivation, concern for others and community; non-academic achievement in the performing arts, athletics or employment; demonstrated interest in major. - LOR’s by invitation only as of 2017
Although you state you do not qualify for financial aid, as an OOS applicant, expect to pay around $65K/year with little to no merit or FA.
Best of luck and apply widely