@straydog a close friend of my D15’s was deferred ED in the 2014/2015 admissions cycle. She was then waitlisted after the RD round. Finally, she was in fact offered a spot off the waitlist that April (which she gladly accepted). It is certainly possible but hard to know from year to year what percent are eventually admitted. Definitely best to turn attention to other schools so you have options you are happy with come spring.