“Interest rates may or may not be going up. People have been “predicting” that and inflation for years.”
Try looking at this with some historical perspective. Interest rates have been dropping, almost uninterrupted, for almost forty years. If things had been left to market forces the decline would have reversed when the financial crisis hit approximately ten years ago, but the government (wisely/thankfully) intervened with an aggressive easy money policy. This saved us from a possible major depression, and has also kept rates low and fueled a growth in equity values.
For years the Fed has been trying, but failing, to push inflation to 2% per year. That isn’t my opinion; you can read their minutes for confirmation. Ironically, while they’ve tried to inflate consumer and producer prices, the only prices that have significantly risen have been those of stocks and commercial real estate. As I stated up thread, I believe that party is coming to an end.
Nobody in the know has been predicting imminent inflation, and while there is no agreement as to when and how much interest rates will rise, there is nearly universal consensus that the decades long interest rate trend has reached the end of the road and that the only direction for rates to go from here is up.
Edit to add: I hope my musings make sense. In writing this from Puerto Vallarta as the bar is closing. Cheers.
@romanigypsyeyes Sounds like you’re in great shape. I wouldn’t be in any particular hurry to pay off any of the debts you mentioned. Assuming your 401(k) is maxed out and/or you want investments under your own control, then I’d just put the extra money into an index fund like QQQ or SPY. I just bought some SPY myself last week, in fact. I would also heartily endorse using a small portion of your inheritance to treat yourself - take a vacation, buy a new tv, buy a slightly nicer car, etc.
As I stated a few pages ago, “there will be good days and there will be bad days, but the Fed’s easy money policy will be winding down soon so the big bull run is running out of steam.”
That being said, my advice to @romanigypsyeyes or any other young investor with a long term horizon would be to maintain a disciplined dollar cost averaging strategy.
For those with a shorter horizon, “staying the course” is riskier.
@romanigypsyeyes - Nice play! Do you plan to hold this for the long term or will you be tempted to take a quick profit if the opportunity presents itself?
Pure luck. But because of an administrative change I initiated an IRA direct rollover on January 25. It sold on the 26th, the peak. It’s set to most likely but back in tomorrow or Monday. Sell high, buy low
I have a question, How does one count the money that is already accumulated and grown in deferred compensation and ROTH IRAs. Does one have to count in CSS Profile or FAFSA or Net Price Caculator., and where. What about the current contribution, as I run NET Price Calculator, I am adding that back to income available. Am I doing right way. Thanks
Whatever happens, things have to calm down, right? I bought some [url="<a href=“https://www.google.com/search?q=VMIN%22%5DVMIN%5B/url”>https://www.google.com/search?q=VMIN"]VMIN[/url] today, at 2.57. It closed up from there, at 2.73. Two weeks ago it was trading in the neighborhood of 33. This is an ETF that shorts VIX (votality index) futures – so it does well when volatility is low.
This is a short-term buy only for me - I wouldn’t count on the market going back to the set-and-forget mode that it has been in the recent past… I’m just counting on it going from crazy to not-crazy in the relative near term.
William ONeil, who founded Investors Dailys newspaper, told me several times after reviewing the historical data, a bear market usually BEGINS after THREE rate hikes.
This is ominous and a very dangerous market in my opinion. We’ve had at least 4 rate hikes and it’s been a very long BULL market so we are definitely due for a correction.
Yesterday was an intermediate correction, which happened in just NINE days.
In 2000, the market fell over 80%.
Remember if you lose 50% of your money, it takes 100% return to make it back. Now how many can make 100%? That’s why WON suggests a stop of 6-8% so you can preserve your golden hard cash.
Also yesterday hedge/market funds had triggers just like WON - which they are trying to preserve capital.
