I sure hope I’m wrong and last year was the peak. But I think 2025 is the peak! I will be very very happy to be proven wrong.
I had never heard of this before…so I just looked it up…they said it may be this year for some areas and next year for others.
My son has about 100 less students in his class from the previous year…so Im not sure if that is a sign?
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I also thought this was peak, and that it started dropping with 2008 births..
Obviously school to school varies. Population wise, our districts peaks w/ HS class of 28 - but that is moving / housing market stuff, not demography.
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Interesting, C25 applied to Wooster and we felt like we aren’t getting much from them. But I guess there isn’t much to get while you wait…
I thought last year was peak but but a Google search says the peak is class of 25 at 3.93 million each and then declining through 2028 (only 3.52M). But let’s go with more acceptances because colleges know the cliff is coming. 
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Wasn’t most of this class born in 2007?
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I think you are right. D25 is one of the youngest in her class and she was born in June 2007.
I wonder how much the drop in applicant numbers is exacerbated by the notion that a college education doesn’t have the same ROI as it used to.
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yes, that is what I mean, I had thought class of 25 was biggest, and started dropping w/ births in 2008..
It overlaps with financial crisis
it is that AND demographics
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Whether the demographic cliff has already happened or is about to happen or is still well in the future depends entirely on where you live—different states have different age pyramids.
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We have shrinking class sizes, too, but that’s because the Boomers are not moving well after their kids are grown. When we moved onto our street over a decade ago, there were 2 families on our block with kids in the schools. We made 3 families, out of 18.
Yep me too!!! All over the place
I don’t think we are experiencing smaller class sizes but we are in a close suburb of a major high cost of living city. However, in my neighborhood pocket we have many older people in place not moving and aging in place in two story homes, that bought their homes when they were built late 1970s and 80. I almost feel ridiculous for the price we had to pay for ours a few years ago and hate looking at my mortgage statement what we pay in interest. The townhouses are ridiculous as well and going up and up, seems like more exponentially than the single families. House is a major part of our monthly expenses.
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I read somewhere that the demographic will actually affect next year’s class. Not sure which is right. My son’s tiny high school has a very small junior class (less than 50), and the senior class is almost 80, which is more typical. That’s not a great representation though.
Maybe this is a great year to take a gap year!
great point!
National statistics matter far less when applying to state or regional colleges, too.
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My S was nominated to apply for the Bonner scholar at one of his schools. Sounds like a cool program but we don’t meet the income requirements. Although I’m taking this as a sign that his application reads well! In his essay he talked about his job at a community wellness center and is currently working toward EMT certification.
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How so? Wouldn’t the overall applicant pool be smaller thereby making it less competitive as in years prior? A well-respected teacher in our school also mentioned that next year’s class will have it easier because of the birth rate drop in 2008.
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You are right and agreeing with me I think!
Certain regions may have already started rolling down the cliff, so regional colleges in that area will already be easier to get in. It doesn’t matter if national peak hasn’t happened yet. I think national stats are more relevant for top 50 schools, as they have a more diverse applicant pool geographically.