Yes, there really seems to be - now more than ever - a feeling of throwing something out to the universe and seeing what it sends back! I trust your S22 ended up somewhere he felt meant to be? My D25 has one, highly sought after OOS school on her list she is really aiming for. I am quietly trying to help her realize the many advantages of the ‘less exciting’ schools on her list while not sounding discouraging.
I think the craziness will escalate until schools make testing either required or recommended. At this point, everyone is empowered to apply anywhere & everywhere (and therefore they do!) I’m not sure how admissions can ‘fairly’ wade though that many applications. I don’t see GPA’s changing (how would they convince every hs in the USA to grade more harshly, in order to better stratify students?)
“Recommended” scores makes the most sense to me from the institution’s stand point. Reading between the lines, it would mean required for all except those few students we really want (athletes, donors & other priority admissions.) Regular folk would be an automatic denial without a score.
I don’t see the process getting any better for our '25s unfortunately. We’ll probably have to over apply like everyone else and see where the chips fall
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My thought: I’ve been through this three times before the current kid, and every single time, this question is applicable.
So I guess my answer to it is: The effects will be the same as every other time.
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The place my S22 ended up has turned out to be working just fine for my kid. I don’t know that either the kid nor the school feel that it was “meant to be” however. More of a feeling of “this works”.
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My D25 will not take standardized tests at all, but is not doing so to jockey into top schools. I’m immensely grateful for the decline of standardized tests.
There’s an interest mismatch at the applicant level. Colleges want high-quality applicants and lots of applications. If they wanted less applications, they could use some brute means to do so (higher price application fee, shorter deadlines, more essay requirement, etc.). At my job, for instance, when we want to hire an internal candidate, we have the job application period open for 2 weeks. They’re not doing that, so they clearly don’t want less applications. Their interest is in the most number of applications, but for applicants, the lowest number is better for them. The ease of applying through Common App, etc. has helped, and yes, the removal of required test scores has also helped increase applications. And here we are.
I feel like in our UMC area, as of Junior year, there is very little interest in “shooting your shot.” (I will say I could be premature and the tenor will change a year from now.) There is usually one dream school/high reach that someone has, but I don’t know anyone who is planning on applying to all Ivies, for instance. All UCs, yes. But I feel like within my social circle the parents would say applying to Harvard or Stanford is wasting $100 application fee–not to mention the time on any requisite essays, so why bother? Also, it just pads their numbers out of your pocket, when most mere mortals have no realistic chance. Unless your child is a superstar–and I think by this age most parents have been schooled on what is really needed for elite admissions or have been slowly weaned from the idea that their child is a superstar–there is little point.
What I see happening is increasing applications for 2nd tier privates–in hopes for merit money that will make the COA comparable to in-state tuition–and more applications to great OOS public schools. We are in the latter camp. When the acceptance rate at our high school is double or triple for UConn (50% admit rate) or UC Boulder (66% admit rate), for instance, than UC Irvine (19% admit rate), it is hard to ignore those numbers and not act on them.
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I am happy my kid seems to like most of the schools we have visited, and is mainly concerned with having a list of places that they have a good shot of getting in. I don’t think they want to waste their time and hope on long-shots either.
I have a younger, kid though, who is a very different student and even at a different HS. I can tell, already, that will be another thing altogether. The younger will potentially benefit from demographic shifts more.
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I have a D30, so I’m curious to see how things change. But they are such different kids that I wouldn’t be surprised that it will be hard to compare!
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I think taking and submitting test scores to schools that don’t require it will up your chances. Of course that depends on what your score is, but I feel like that will help an above average student get into a normal school (not ivy or whatever).
I keep hoping for the price bubble to pop also. It won’t for D25 but maybe for S28?
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That price bubble really does need to have a reckoning. For fun I ran the npc for Princeton and it came back with $20,000/yr but running it for schools like Syracuse, Lehigh, F&M, and Bucknell come back in the 48-58k range. It’s like ultra wealthy schools know what a middle class family can reasonably afford without hardship. The rest including the instate public’s that run 28-35k/yr expect we’ll take loans. My D25 is fortunate that we can afford the instate price so any private that gets there can stay on the list.
The difference between the schools you ran really comes down to size of endowment. Schools with enormous endowments (Princeton) are better able to fully fund their students. Schools like Syracuse, Lehigh, F&M and Bucknell have less money to give…so give less money.
Most also make no promise to fully fund their students need…and every school that does fully fund their students requires the CSS (exception UChicago, iirc) which does a much deeper dive on assets and income - usually resulting in requiring more money than the FAFSA might, unless the student qualifies for a Pell grant.
Sorta.
Yes if you’re talking about aid that meets full financial need, or especially meeting full need without loans.
Not so much if you’re talking about merit aid—generally speaking, the most highly capitalized universities are the least likely to offer any.
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Hey all - I’m new to this thread and just wanted to wave and say hi! I’ve got one child already in college (current sophomore at WPI - which I’ve become a huge fan of, so if anyone ever has questions I’m happy to chat - if, like us, you aren’t from New England you may not be as familiar) and my other son is the current HS Junior.
If nothing else, this process with DS25 is reinforcing the OMG MY BOYS ARE DIFFERENT of it all. Older kid knew he wanted to be an engineer, knew he wanted smallish, wanted to row in college. Younger kid maybe wants urban planning, maybe geography, maybe construction management. Wants a big school with “school spirit” (which i think, in his head, means "people go to some kind of sporting event to cheer for the school).
We’ve got a spring break driving tour of schools planned out and, if things weren’t weirdly insane, I’d think he’d be fine with a few reaches, a few targets, a good handful of likelies, but who the heck knows anymore.
The one big benefit of DS25’s list over DS22 - for my older boy, all the schools he was looking at (with one exception) we really needed merit aid to come through to make them feasible. For DS25, most of the schools full price tag is less than what we’re paying (even with merit aid) for my older boy. I’ll take it.
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I get that they don’t make the promises the ultra wealthy schools make but the fact that there’s going to be fewer college age students in the foreseeable future that the heyday of inflated tuition costs are hopefully going to burst. Likely the opposite is true though. Schools like Princeton seem to recognize what a rational price for college should be for the vast majority of Americans. I was only pointing out that for many colleges the expectation is loans. They “meet need” but they really just need parents to borrow money to utilize their product. I’m just salty, that’s all 
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I am always here for salty.
And totally agree many of these non ultra wealthy schools “meet need” by offering outrageously large loans. I definitely send a side eye to all schools that do that. 
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I can’t even afford our in-state university. It’s astronomical and I don’t think they give any merit aid (UIUC).
I would love to hear more about WPI! I don’t know much about it but have done some research on it. Are they test blind?
S25 just put in his course request for next year:
AP Lit
AP Calc AB (although he is going to try to get moved up to BC)
AP Chem
Honors Cyber Security
Honors Spanish 2
Religion IV
Honors Band
Advanced Wind Ensemble
I think it’s probably just the right amount of rigor for him, since I can imagine senioritis will kick in quickly!
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A thought on WPI: I’ve mentioned before that I went to college planning to be an engineer, and promptly flunked out.
I got waitlisted at WPI. I am still convinced that if I had gone there, given their then-innovative (and still not as widespread as it IMO should be) approach to STEM teaching, not only would I not have flunked out but I might well have stayed in engineering.
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I looked at WPI with my 2020 kid and we both liked it (other than the size of the forced triples!) That child was almost ‘easier’ to look for since they knew what they wanted: tech schools. Even back then (pre-Covid) WPI was test optional.
D25 is still lost on what she wants and where she should look. Honestly, our state flagship seemed the most exciting of anything we’ve seen. She has stats to apply anywhere, but isn’t interested in fancy named private schools where we’d be full pay and they don’t offer merit.
I have a friend whose eldest was at Princeton a few year ago and paid less than what our state flagship was charging them. I toured Princeton with my 2020 and they didn’t like it at all. Completely turned off by their (perceived sense of) self-importance. And we looked at a lot of prestigious schools so that says a lot! Didn’t apply to Princeton.
I saw on the news (WSJ and NYT) today that Dartmouth is reinstituting testing for our 2025 kids.
Yes, there has been quite the active thread around this today.
Where’s the thread?