Grinnell is a fantastic school, with a very different vibe from some of the Northeastern schools that have been listed here. I can absolutely understand why it would be someone’s first choice (in fact if I were applying now it might be mine). But the distance issue is real, and the COVID issue is real, so I think it’s risky for ED. If you are a strong candidate who might get in ED, and can demonstrate genuine interest, your odds are probably pretty decent for RD as well, which would give the pandemic some time to shake out, and you the opportunity to compare aid packages.