@VeryLuckyParent not sure why Penn is doing this. I really cannot believe that Penn loses a meaningful number of ED applicants, enough to make it necessary to institute this policy. I think most students are afraid of ED and the commitment and the ones who do commit are those who know that Penn is their top choice. Also I think Penn is bound to have more ED applicants that genuinely have Penn as their first choice than the other schools on the same tier, i.e. Columbia, Chicago, due to the dual degree programs and Wharton. I can’t see a meaningful number of applicants going into the application process with the intention or even the know-how to game the system (i.e apply to both an EA and ED school with the intention of potentially breaking off the ED contract for some reason). Also Penn s financial aid is as good as MIT and Chicago – but then again Chicago has merit scholarships which changes things (but how many students would that affect?).
I really disagree with your post regarding internationals, given that I am kind of one, in the sense that while American i mostly grew up and finished high school abroad. It is true that outside the US, Harvard/MIT/Stanford are the top dream schools. Next comes Yale, Princeton. Next tier Columbia/Penn/Chicago. It is very true that most international students are very prestige-focused (and understandably so, they are making a big move leaving their country so they seek the security of a globally super-strong brand). An international student with competitive stats simply will not even think about committing ED to a school like Penn, unless Penn is their number one choice (and there are quite a few intl students who do have Penn as their first choice). An international dreaming of Harvard will apply SCEA to Harvard to maximize their chances at Harvard, and then leave the rest for ED. Plus the vast majority of them do not apply for financial aid so there is no way they could break the ED contract at Penn.
The only feasible explanation I can find is that Penn wants to limit the ED pool to people who absolutely, 150% have Penn as their first choice. It seems petty to me but maybe they are moving in this direction to further rationalize accepting the majority of the class ED and further legitimize the yield which hit 68-69% this year. I really don’t think it is gonna affect the quality of the ED applicants in any significant way. Yeah Penn might get a few hundred fewer ED apps but not much will chance imo.
@Cue7 I think you are right about Penn and Chicago. I would argue Penn entered the just-below-HYPSM top game 16-17 years ago at the very end of the 90s, after the vast reforms under judith rodin started having a tangible effect on the school. For Chicago it has been the last 4-5 years of really rising through the ranks of the whole prestige-rankings game. So yeah I would agree thaT these two schools are probably the most conscious of their standing. Columbia has been part of the top game for a long time, throughout the 20th century. But nowadays I don’t see any meaningful differential between the three schools in terms of desirability etc.