I don’t like chance me’s since it’s like figuring out a math problem without all the variables. I will say that these schools are Hyper-competitive and all the applicants will have top scores and EC’s. You’ll be compared to others in your school, state and region. If you come from a less well-represented state you might have a better chance. Your PSAT score is low. I’d imagine if you’re SAT is comparable, you’d be in below the 25% range (maybe not). But essays, recommendations and what type of business you had, how you ran it, how much it made is important.
Also since Penn divides into concentrations that might impact how you are viewed as well.
Also, some schools will have already sent students to these programs. That can help. If not, I’d say the odds are lower. You never know. Apply and put your best foot forward.