You probably won’t know the results of many auditions by January/February, and really can’t go by how the auditions felt to your child. There are many anecdotes of a child getting accepted to a program when she felt it was her worst audition. You also can’t make a statement that since 4 of 12 schools (for example) have responded by January and all are no, your child’s chances are low. It could be that the next 6 schools are a yes. The wisest thing to do is apply to one or two safety schools, and some schools that aren’t the most selective audition schools, along with your more desired schools. Don’t wait until January! You will always second guess your list. I still do, and my daughter is a Junior in a MT BFA program.