Please brutally honest chance me Vanderbilt or Rice (ED1 possibly), Emory (ED2 possibly), UCLA, UCB, Georgetown

The UC’s consider 3 GPA’s; Unweighted, Capped weighted and Fully weighted. As a CA HS student, you can look up which HS Honors classes will get the extra weighting here:

UC GPA calculator here: GPA Calculator for the University of California – RogerHub

Any AP or Honors classes taken 10th grade 2nd semester as Pass/No Pass, the weighting cannot be counted in the calculation.

What you have posted in regards to grades is correct since it will round up to a 4.4 capped weighted.

UC’s are test blind so your excellent SAT score will be not considered for admissions or merit scholarships but can be used for course placement if submitted.

Overall you are a competitive applicant. The specific admit rates by GPA for the UC’s 2021 are not yet available but I will post the 2020 admit rates and also the overall and CA acceptance rates for 2021.
2020 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 4.20 or above capped weighted and not major specific:

UCB: 37%

UCLA: 38%

UCSD: 78%

UCSB: 81%

UCD: 86%

UCI: 60%

UCSC: 92%

UCR: 97%

UCM: 98%

Overall Admission Rates:

UCLA: 10.8%

UC Berkeley: 14.5%

UC Irvine: 29.0%

UC Santa Barbara: 29.2%

UC San Diego: 34.3%

UC Davis: 49.0%

UC Santa Cruz: 58.9%

UC Riverside: 66.0%

UC Merced: 95.6%

Admission Rates for California Applicants:

UCLA: 10.1%

UC Berkeley: 16.8%

UC Irvine: 20.1%

UC Santa Barbara: 28.0%

UC San Diego: 28.5%

UC Davis: 39.0%

UC Santa Cruz: 54.5%

UC Riverside: 64.0%

UC Merced: 99.7%

Best of luck.

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