Sticker price comes down at the Ivies ONLY based on financial need. Their Net Price Calculators tend to be accurate if your parents aren’t divorced and they don’t own their own business. Sit down with your parents to run the NPC at a couple of the Ivies on your list. If the NPC is affordable you are good to apply. If not, there is no negotiating of aid.
I think you are a viable candidate for any school on your list but no one has a “strong shot” at schools with sub 10% acceptance rates.