I echo the be careful mantra when it comes to college admissions. In 2013-14, my daughter applied to a whopping 17 colleges out of an abundance of caution… 4 safeties, 4 matches, 3 low reaches and 6 high reaches, but she was ultimately rejected by 12 out of the 17 schools. She was only accepted to her 4 safeties and one match.
She had created a matrix to determine where her stats correlated with every school on her list, and then came to consider certain schools matches based on such, but with so many applicants these days, being in the 75% or better is still not a guarantee. Everyone has to self-evaluate of course. But if you are simply a well-qualified, over-achieving non-URM with no definitive hook to assist your admissions chances, then beware and tread lightly. You may need to apply to more schools or apply early somewhere to gain an assured admit.
So assume nothing and leave yourself options. Just keep in mind that when an elite college accepts 5-9%, they are also then rejecting 91-95% of all applicants. Even an elite college accepting 30% is then rejecting 70%. And many of those failed applicants had good reason to believe that they would be accepted too. But with so many seniors applying to 10 or more schools and each elite school receiving 25K+ applications (some receive 50K+ and one even received 80K+), the chances of securing that coveted “golden ticket” keep going down.
Good luck…