From most difficult to least difficult:
out of reach (do not bother applying)
high reach
low reach
high match
low match
safety (certain for admission and affordability)
Note that if a large enough merit scholarship is needed to be able to afford to attend the college (i.e. not affordable at list price or with need-based financial aid estimated from the net price calculator), the assessment should be based on the likelihood of getting the scholarship, not merely admission. A too-expensive school that may be a low match or safety for admission may be a high reach for a large enough merit scholarship, or even out of reach if large enough merit scholarships do not exist.
Note also that if the student wants a popular major, and the college admits by major or division, the assessment must account for whether the intended major is a more selective one than the college overall.