Thank you for your reply, @ucbalumnus. I’m still unclear how you distinguish a “low match” or “high match,” and same for reaches. I totally get the “out of reach” ones that neither she nor I want her applying to anyway, but isn’t a “match” a match? Is it that you line up all of the colleges you’re considering and rate them all on this grey scale? I would think the best idea would be to find potential colleges that fit into all the categories to cover all your bases…?
Your points about merit aid are spot-on – we’ve been putting merit aid into all of our calculations, just because we can’t afford sticker price at many/most schools where she’d be a good fit. She has a couple of "safeties,"so labeled because we’d be able to afford the full COA if absolutely necessary, but we’re not certain she’d be happy at them. (One we will be visiting next month & I’m really hoping it’s a good fit as it’s a great admissions and financial safety. I’m not sure what we’ll do if she despises it, which I don’t expect since that hasn’t been her style, but you never know. 
)
Thanks for all your guidance!