<p>Two additional things to think about:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Didn’t they make some “Z-list” acceptances off the wait list last year? People who were admitted, but on the condition that they take a gap year?</p></li>
<li><p>With a constant class size and yield, you would probably expect admitted people taking gap years and people enrolling after gap years to balance out pretty exactly. If, say, 2% of accepted students agree to enroll but elect to take a gap year, and there were 3,400 accepted students every year, there would be 68 students electing to take gap years and 68 students enrolling after finishing their gap years. But if you go from 3,400 acceptances to 2,700, those numbers may not balance out. At a 2% rate, you would have a 14-student difference, and that’s assuming no change in the fundamental underlying yield.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>The bottom line is that, if the class size is really going to be 1,400, that may mean that only 1,360 or so students would be enrolling from the current pool of acceptees – a yield rate pretty close to 50% (although you will never be able to track the actual number exactly). It also means that if fundamental yield is still under 50% naturally, there will be wait list activity, but not as much as many people think.</p>
<p>And the other possibility is that the real class size expectation is somewhere around 1,450.</p>