Is the question here really whether taking 14 AP courses will make up for having only “typical ECs?” The answer is: probably not.
The day an Adcom at Harvard yells across the room, “Hey look you guys, a kid who took 10 AP’s! And look- a 5 on AP Psych! Gotta get this kid in here” is the day I’m crowned Queen of England.
Check out OP’s AP thread. You get sick reading it. What a waste of one kid’s live, and read the reason her kid wants to go to college, it makes me want to throw up, I hope she was kidding. Btw, if you are in California, UCB or UCLA never cracked the top 20 USNews. So if this kid is from California then he is so out of luck.
I am so surprised by the comments. Do you ever plan your life? Like 2-3 years ahead? Or do you live day-to-day, without any projections?
Imagine a startup company that has the following business plan “We will work hard and develop our passions”. Would anyone ever invest in them?
What is the kid’s passion?
Correct answer for CC - treat cancer, win Nobel price, become the best athlete, save the universe.
Wrong answer for CC - get good grades, get into top 20 college, get good salary and nice job.
Seriously? What if the child really, really wants to get into Stanford? He doesn’t want to get Nobel price. He wants a 6-figure salary and a house in the Silicon valley. This is his passion.
The question is not, whether he needs it. The question is - how to get there? He wants to get into top 20 college. What should he do to get there?
A business plan is not a 14 year old schoolkid. And in neither case can you “predict” how successful they will be. Set a target goal? Sure, but predict, no. And speaking of planning, or not. these kids change their minds all the time (courses, majors, desired colleges). Will happen in HS and college. Nothing wrong with curriculum planning in HS. Its a good idea. But things change. As for predicting the ACT and GPA, thats kinda funny.
A number of years ago, I had a kid in my freshman math class.
He was probably the smartest kid I had taught in 20 years or so. He was bright and intuitive. He could talk politics, literature, history-- as close to a Renaissance Man as a 14 year old could be. He had “future valedictorian” written all over him.
Until he had an emotional breakdown a few years later. I think he did eventually graduate, but not with his class and certainly not as Valedictorian. I saw him a few years ago, and I think he was going to Community College part time, taking one or two classes a semester.
The point is that life is unpredictable. No one is immune from physical or emotional illness.
Planning ahead, in a loose sort of way, is fine. Planning on grades for courses he hasn’t taken yet is another thing entirely.
Do you tell me that you are NOT planning your kids classes in advance? How is it possible?
I do understand that plans should be flexible. There is, always, the likely scenario, a best case scenario, and the worst case scenario. Like with any plan.
Also, I do not understand people, who feel sorry for teenagers. I mean, parents plan - just a suggestion. Obviously, you bring horse to river, but you can’t force it to drink. If a teen doesn’t feel like taking a class, obviously, he would not take it. Teens are pretty good about exercising the veto power 
I feel bad for children, struggling in school, because their parents never bothered to look ahead. In our school, 2 boys took AP Physics without any background in Physics. They are struggling. GPA is in sewer.
If it is obvious that the child may be interested in engineering … why, why would not you sign him for some physics class ASAP? Because he is not eligible - he doesn’t have enough math. Why doesn’t he have enough math? Because nobody bothered to explain him, that he has to take accelerated math in middle school. And so on … I feel sorry for these kids. Yes, they may catch up later in life. But they will always play the catch up game.
And they never met with their school advisor to discuss curriculum planning? Whose fault is that? And what may seem “obvious” at one point becomes moot at another.
BTW, the expression is “you can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make him drink”.
I think that general attitude on CC is “Take the kid and see what college fits him/her”.
My attitude is very different. It is “See what this kids wants / able to achieve. Provide him/her with a roadmap to get there.”
Objective: The kid wants to go into top 20 college. Roadmap: Is he on the right track? What else is needed? How to get it?
I could pretty accurately predict one of my kid’s SAT scores - they took them in 6th and 7th grade. One had always scored in the top 1% of any test he took - SAT was no different. The other was a little more lopsided, but still pretty predictable - math still in top 10% of test takers. Older son knew in elementary school what he wanted to do and never wavered. The younger one has been a constant surprise. He’s been out of college for a year, and what he thinks he wants to do now, I would never have in a million years predicted.
I didn’t teach either of my kids to be motivated by money. One is making that six figure salary, the other is finally getting paid a decent amount. It’s currently a temp position, but he may be able to extend it a year - which is how long it will probably take to set him up for what he wants to do next.
I’m actually fine with the goal good grades, good college (not necessarily top 20), good salary (but my definition is probably lower than that of OP) and nice job. I think the best way to get there is to explore interests, volunteer or work at real jobs and figure out what you want to do so that you don’t just default to whatever looks like it will make you the most money when you arrive at college. I know a lot of unhappy lawyers and bankers.
Its perhaps more likely, especially at that age, that its the PARENT who wants the kid to go to a top 20.
I just don’t buy that taking AP Physics and getting say a D is going to be an endless catchup game. GPA over 4 years is pretty stable, do the math, so this GPA did not go down more than say 0.1 or 0.2.
Either you drop that class (assuming you can graduate) or you suck up the grade. You take the required math and then you take physics again in college, where you could have a small advantage in that you have seen the material before.
Worst case you go to a 2nd tier state school. Horror of horrors, you go to CC for two years and transfer to 2nd tier state school. You can still lead a good life.
UCB was #20 last year. I know for sure.
While the idea of Stanford to get a SV job could be honestly true for many, I think you have to spin a better tale for those essays. The only way to make that plan work for admissions is to say found a startup in SV or maybe better in Podunk in your sophomore year and get bought out by Google. That will impress them.
Ok, I put my question the wrong way.
Lets dream that the kid would get almost perfect GPA and ACT, get AP classes and curriculum mentioned above. White boy. No hooks. Typical EC (1-2 clubs, volunteer hours, HS science teams). Not an athlete.
Does he have a reasonable chance to be accepted into top 20? Or should he (urgently) look for some additional points, because the list above is not enough? Organize a new club? Take college classes during summer break? Charity? Science project (not very excited about it, but capable).
I do understand that it may be beneficial to get a Nobel price and win Olympics. However, not likely.
"Seriously? What if the child really, really wants to get into Stanford? "
LOL!!
What a naive question! How much a student WANTS to go to Stanford OR to a top 20 school is completely irrelevant. NO Student can be assured of getting into those types of colleges in 4 years, and given Stanford’s admit rate, whcih continues to plummet, a student should NOT be encouraged to think he has a chance of acceptance there. Getting into Stanford, for most students, is a gift, and should only be thought of that way. There is no magic formula, [ except possibly being a top scholar- athlete whose alumni parents have donated millions of $$] , that will more than likely tip a student into the admit pile .
I REALLY want a Tesla S! Is it realistic that I will find the $$ to be able to afford it? probably not! So I am not REALLY, REALLY hoping I can somehow get one.
His goals of getting into certain colleges, and living in a particular place, which you seem to be encouraging , are probably unrealistic at this point [ unless his parents have the $$ and want to spring for a place fro him in SV now] and THAT is what YOU need to learn AND to teach the students you are trying to help.
He should do the best he can in HS, develop EC’s that he is interested in , and come his SR year, he will be able to have a better idea of colleges where he has a realistic chance of acceptance.
Why not put this question in the “what are my chances” thread, californiaa? Might get the kind of traction you seem to be looking for. The rest of us will put our crystal balls away. Oh, and if he perfects cold fusion, he has a shot 
Yes, comet may come and we may all perish, like dinosaurs did. Have you ever dreamed about the day you pay off your mortgage, for example?
I agree. “Planning” is the wrong word". Better is “dreaming”.
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Hmmm. I would say taking AP Physics and getting say a C+ is going to be a long catch-up game. Especially if this kid wants to get into Physics and into the top school.