Predictions that an Elite Law School May Close

@emilybee, your nephew couldn’t have gone to Purdue for law school!

That’s what my H said about the medical profession. One advantage is you won’t be unemployed.

Everyone thought the sky was falling in law firm hiring in the early 90s, then in one year starting salaries for first years jumped from $80k to $140k. So these things are cyclical.

In response to the question abt rates: there was a very short period of time (1997-2008, approx.) when law firms were able to build ridiculously outrageous profit centers with “contract” lawyers and paralegals being billed out at $300 an hour but being paid peanuts to review literally hundreds of millions of pages of documents at issue in large complex litigation. This was after the rise of e-discovery and before the rise of independent document reviewing companies that change much less for the same work. Also, this was before the change in the federal rules and many state court rules of civil procedure; the prior rules essentially required a page-by-page review because the penalties for making a mistake used to be so draconian. New rules – spearheaded largely by Google – allow for keyword searching and for less draconian penalties is privileged material is inadvertently provided to the other side.

The use of these profit centers at large law firms caused profits to skyrocket. This particular spigot was cut off quite dramatically over night in the Fall 2008 when big corporate clients said, “No more.” But law firm partners were by then used to these rapidly increasing profits.

Hourly rates for partners and associates have stayed the same or have increased. But the amount clients are willing to pay for the tasks that are essentially administrative has plummeted. And also any tolerance for billing for what amounts to training time has been cut off.

Plus, as noted upthread, clients are more interested in alternative fee arrangements that are not necessarily tied to billable hours and are developing preferred provider relationships with particular law firms that provide for deeply discounted hourly rates.

The point of all this is that I believe that the current situation in large and moderately-sized law firm hiring was caused by this historical anomaly that allowed for unbelievably high profits for a short period of time through the use of massive numbers the least skilled timekeepers. In an effort to keep profits up after that source dried up, law firms cut back on personnel at all levels, keeping only the most productive employees. This will eventually correct and the market will return back to what was relatively normal.

Not to be a contrarian, but law school is still a great option. There are excellent law schools that may never make the arbitrary lists of top law schools, but are topping the list in certain specialties. There are also non-law careers where a law degree is preferred, and in some companies required. My non-top-20 law degree was the best 3 years and money I ever spent. I was hired by a Big Law firm, and loved it. My law school wouldn’t make any list of top law schools compiled by any of you, but in fact it is ranked at the top in 2 specialties (including mine) and has over 90% job placement (93% last year). You don’t need a pile of debt and a law degree from a top law school, but you do need to do some research to find a great program with great job placement and affordable tuition. They’re out there.

Barfly- I don’t know when you graduated, but, as has been pointed out, things have changed drastically in the legal field.

I can only recommend law school to a very select group of students (and Oldfort’s daughter would be one of them) who are prepared to be at the top of a class and/or be at a T20 or so (I don’t buy the strictness of T14) school and do very well. The student then has to be ready to suffer through Big Law or work hard at client development at a regional firm.

I like the specialty firms in Labor and Employment. There are about 3 really strong firms and the quality of life at them is somewhat better than many of the big firms and the work is interesting.

I agree with MOWC, there are plenty of people who I would recommend law school to, but like you said Barfly, they need to find a great program with the results they need, therefore they need to do research. I don’t think law school should ever be a default position for someone who doesn’t know what they want to do or for someone who wants to unmask the real murderer in a burst of courtroom dramatics. Firms still hire (thus the need for recruitment professionals!), as does the government and all sorts of employers. It’s just about deciding smartly. Personally, I think it’s too risky for someone to apply to law school when they have a large amount of undergrad debt or a family to support, but that’s just me.

FWIW, there are many lawyers who thoroughly enjoy working at a Big Law firm. It’s hard work, yes, but many find it exciting and rewarding, and not all Big Law firms are sweat shops. Not only that, many firms now have non-partnership tracks that were not available when I graduated. This is a good thing, and many lawyers I know have chosen to go off partnership track for personal reasons, such as having more time with family.

@MomofWIldChild, I graduated long ago but am still practicing, and recruiting, and teaching, and am well aware of the current state of the legal field. Yes things have changed (not just in law, but in every field). But I repeat: students need to do some research to find a great program with great job placement and affordable tuition. Health law, energy law, tax law, M&A, etc., etc. - there are many great specialty fields in the practice of law. But if a student tells me he has an undergrad degree in criminal justice and wants to be a victim’s advocate lawyer, I might want to tell him that the job market is going to be tough. On the other hand, an kid with an accounting degree who wants to practice tax law is going to be just fine.

Back to the topic of this thread: as far as I’m concerned, every elite law school could close tomorrow and it wouldn’t make a hill of beans difference to anyone but the students, staff and professors at those schools. There are plenty of law schools that do just as good a job at training legal professionals. IMHO.

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Let’s say you’re smart, your forte is reading and writing, you aren’t particularly entrepreneurial, you aren’t a personality star, you aren’t a leader of men. you have indifferent math and computer skills and don’t really like math. You get out of college with a liberal arts degree, and can’t find a job. Or find only a low paying dead-end job that you hate that leads to nowhere. What the heck are you supposed to do? Die?

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Oh give me a break. There are TONS of interesting, challenging, well-paid professions out there that don’t involve law or STEM. Really – STEM, law or die? That seems a little dramatic.

@Barfly - my bad. It’s IUPU where he went.

"The Robert H. McKinney School of Law at Indiana University-Purdue University–Indianapolis "

Just for fun I checked NYU law school against a few others with similar rankings.

Tuition only:
NYU: $56 K
UVA: $52 K (instate), $55K (out of state)
Northwestern: $56K
Michigan : $50K (instate), $54K (out of state)

Based on this it does not appear as if NYU is high tuition compared to similar schools.

@emilybee, that’s what I figured. It’s IU’s law school. It has nothing to do with Purdue EXCEPT it’s location on the IUPUI campus, but the law school is part of IU only.

IU has it’s own law school in Bloomington (Maurer). The Indy campus is separate.

Whatever. The point I was trying to make was that he didn’t go to a top law school.

I went to a go away lunch today and sat next to 2014 law school graduate from USC, same story, she is not earning much, no where near $160k per year.

Very interesting thread, I have a few questions. Are certain programs within the top 20 or so law schools known to be better is certain areas? 150K seems unrealistic by the time you add in living expenses for 3 years. What is the true cost? Does it help or hurt possible admission if you have spent the last 4 to 5 years working and are not straight out of undergrad? My last question is somewhat delicate. If you are a Black female grad from a top program is it realistic to seek employment in a private law firm versus a government job? Thanks, and please be brutally honest, no sugar coating.

Like TutuTaxi, I have a few questions for the experts here. My son is thinking of law school in a few years and wants to do public policy work (education policy specifically). He has no undergrad debt and will also, after next year, have a master’s degree in public policy from the London School of Economics. He is presently completing a State Department fellowship in Asia. My first question is: will these extras (LSE and fellowship) help him to any degree that matters, in either law school admissions or employment? I realize that the LSAT is the primary determinant of law school admissions and he is an excellent standardized test-taker so I think top 20 is realistic. My second question is: assuming he could be admitted, would it make sense to go to HYS over a school like Georgetown (or Duke or Vanderbilt - just picking some a little farther down the list), if his ultimate goal is to work for, say, the Department of Justice?

Edited to add: assuming he would qualify for some amount of merit scholarship from Georgetown/Duke/Vanderbilt - if the cost is the same, I would further assume the higher-ranked school would almost be preferable (given his career goals).

[quorte]I realize that the LSAT is the primary determinant of law school admissions…

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LSAT is ~45%admissions, with GPA ~45% and everything else is 10%.

for

Absolutely. But it depends on the merit/discounts available for those farther down the food chain.

In terms of employment, law school grades are very, very important. An African American woman with good grades from a top law school will have her choice of job at virtually any law firm in the country.

Other factors that can help in getting jobs at big law firms are relationships with professors and federal judicial clerkships. Leadership roles on the primary law review or law journal also help.

Some schools de-emphasize grades. For example, Yale has no grades first semester, and thereafter only “honors” and “pass.” And professors there are notoriously inconsistent in how they award honors and pass grades. So, when recruiting at Yale, law firms rely on more subjective factors in making distinctions between candidates, like recommendations from professors (or even, I hate to say, personality). Stanford has also recently flattened its grading system so there is less ability for employers to distinguish between students based on grades.

But professor relationships matter at any school. At my firm, at least, lawyers maintain close relationships with professors at the schools and call them to ask about candidates who have taken their courses or who have served as their research assistants. And professors call us to advocate for their favorite students.

We’ve hired candidates from schools that we normally don’t recruit at or candidates falling below our loose, informal grade cut-offs on the basis of such unsolicited calls from professors whom we know and trust.

At my firm, a degree from LSE would be viewed very positively, but would not make up for mediocre performance at law school.

I can’t comment on the Washington DC job market. Nationwide, however, graduating in the top third-to/half of the class from Harvard, Yale or Stanford will undoubtedly open many more doors than the same performance at Georgetown or Duke, but just about any job will be open to those in the top 10-15% of the class from any school at that level. (And there’s no sense at all that an A student at GT or Duke would be a B student at Harvard; the A student at GT or Duke would likely do equally as well at Harvard.) Again, can’t comment on DC recruiting.

Tutu taxi, you asked for honesty and I will give it to you. Black law school graduates are the most sought after candidates in law firms. The reason is that law firms all take the rankings very seriously and the diversity index is a large part of that ranking. A black graduate of a good school will be 100% employable in top law firms. A highly ranked graduate of a top law school will be among the most sought after candidates in the country and will unquestionably have multiple offers. There is an alternate hiring path for URM law students and they are recruited from schools where white and Asian graduates could never be hired from. The only group of people, aside from the independently wealthy or famous, who I would tell to go to law school no matter the cost is a black admit to a good law school. And if that were my child, I would dance in the streets.

MathildaMae, in the last few years, older graduates who bring something more to the table are much more desirable than young people going straight from college to law school. Candidates with interesting stories, including unique ones like being street entertainers or chefs, are really well thought of. I always tell potential applicants that if they successfully played one of the sports that law firms compete in to make sure it appears on the resume.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I am almost certain that Asian lawyers count toward the diversity statistics used by, among others, American Lawyer in the many awards (like, for example, the “A-List” firms). And Asian lawyers definitely count toward diversity statistics complied by certain bar associations.

And for good reason. Until very recently, Asian lawyers were severely underrepresented in the partnerships of major law firms and in the judiciary.