<p>Well my son is a sophomore, so we only have been through this for year 1 and year 2. Our preliminary award did not change, but the increase did occur sometime in the summer. To be honest, I don’t know if the anticipated increase was taken into account when we received our preliminary FA offer. Our other OOS public was 4k more than JMU, but offered nothing at all (unless you count plus loans, LOL. We did not even consider plus loans). In year 2 we did not receive a preliminary notice (at least I don’t remember it). We knew that we were eligible for something because of the increase in costs and a small decrease in our efc. This worked out. I know that for next year we will not qualify for a subsidized Stafford, but we’ll end up taking it unsubsidized because we simply cannot afford the full freight out of our pockets. With it all, we compared 10 packages last year. 2 private schools came in costing less than JMU. We also felt that if merit awards were lost, then those would have been 2 much more expensive options. The reason is that they both only meet about 60-65% of financial need. Only one private school offered my son significant grants in the form financial aid to make themselves affordable, rather than in form of merit aid. That school would have also cost a bit more than JMU cost us last year, even with their financial aid. It sounds like your efc is similar to ours, since you feel like a deer caught in head lights. It is not an easy decision.</p>