My thoughts: applications across the board will be up, FP because BS is more attractive and maybe safer, FA up for those reasons but also because finances are an issue. Some returning students will need more help. Acceptances for both group will be down. How much each group changes will related to each school.
I have been very uneasy about TO. It felt like the schools were being forced into it, when they actually wanted or at least preferred the scores. Only 1/12 of our schools refused them. So my son took it seriously and we are submitting. Based on these boards, it seems like a lot of people who might not have average-scores-for-school are applying to those schools. I was worried that the absence of scores would be viewed that way.
Ultimately, I don’t think anyone here can know what is behind the closed doors. I do think applications are up which mean acceptances will be down. BS is an expensive choice. I’d guess families in the FP income range aren’t as financial stressed as lower income people.