Look, admissions is competitive any way you look at it. Before trying to figure out gender/race combos, you need to figure out which “bucket” of seats you are chasing at a given school and then totally guess how many are applying for those particular seats–which you will never know beforehand, much less how competitive YOU are for one of the few seats in that bucket.
For example, the year our son applied to Choate, the incoming class ended up being 112 boys and 112 girls, so he really didn’t have a shot at 224 seats, he only had a shot at 112 regardless of anything else he might be bringing to the table beyond chromosomes. By the time he matriculated and we attended the AD’s opening speech, we realized that our son was in a bucket of fewer than 10 seats because the class was broken down into:
Male/female
Foreign/domestic
Domestic geographical
Boarding/day
Full pay/FA
Diversity
Legacy (development)
Siblings
Athletics and other talent (music, academics, etc.)
Each applicant admitted was there because s/he filled a bucket need, but those buckets ended up being pretty shallow–and Choate is one of the bigger schools. So, keep this in mind as you play your game.
All anyone can do is put together the best application they can and let the chips fall where they may. Anything else is pointless. Now, go out and play.