The meta study review at https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/01.hyp.0000094221.86888.ae found that 1kg weight loss reduced blood pressure by an average of ~1 point. However, there is a lot of variation between individuals for a variety of different reasons. Similarly different studies may have different results for a variety of different reasons, including which population groups they use (age, gender, weight, how long after weight loss BP measurement occurs, concurrent exercise, concurrent medical conditions, degree of hypertension…) . The graph below shows the average weight loss for the different studies in the meta review. Note that 3 of the low weight factor studies found an increase in blood pressure with weight loss, rather than decrease.
This type of cardiovascular risk calc works on a similar principle. On average the combination of calc inputs are correlated with decrease/increase in cardiovascular risk, but individuals may have different changes in risk level from population averages, for a variety of reason.
It’s a similar idea for exercise. The meta study review at https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/bjsports/57/20/1317.full.pdf found that all reviewed forms of exercise are associated with a decrease in average blood pressure, as pictured below. However, many individuals will have different results from the overall population averages.
