@Ferchu – I think you need to factor in chances of admission into that ED decision— even though ED is not guaranteed either, assuming higher chances of admission ED it is a bird in hand vs. 2 in the bush equation. It doesn’t make sense to compare costs at school where admissions chances are reasonable (if only in the ED round) with one where admission chances are in the single digits.
But keep in mind that the general advice is that if you need financial aid, its best not to apply ED. Unless your daughter has her heart absolutely set on that ED college, she’ll probably have better options in the spring when you can compare awards. (And even if she does have her heart set … sometimes, as noted, the answer is “no”).