<p>I agree. I was being unserious and wildly irrelevent. No doubt.</p>
<p>And dstark, Phil Mickelson, who is the subject of this thread, appears to be moving out, just like he said he would, DUE TO PROP 30 TAXES!</p>
<p>This Coloradan could use more east coast weather. Bone dry. Nearly 70-degrees the other day. I’ve had to water my new tree just to keep it alive 
It’s shaping up to be another bone dry winter. Not right! (Big sigh.)</p>
<p>Maybe the discussion we should be having is not the economic impact of taxing the rich – but of climate change…</p>
<p>I am surprised that this thread is still open, given that arguments about taxes and a ballot measure are inherently political. The claim is that people are voting with their feet against taxes. But plenty of people are not voting with their feet. Indeed, when they voted with their ballots, those in wealthier counties voted more in favor of Proposition 30 than those in poorer counties:</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2012-general/15-ballot-measures.pdf[/url]”>http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2012-general/15-ballot-measures.pdf</a></p>
<p>I hope it stays dry up here today. I want to run!</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>What is wrong with running in the rain?</p>
<p>Anyway, it was all over some talk radio I picked up in the car yesterday that Phil IS paying 62-63% (because, after all, that’s what they heard and only what they heard.) And no one stopped to consider how that breaks down, what his particular tax deductions, etc, may be, or anything beyond the jumping to throw up hands and complain. And, that’s why we need to be a lil more leery of what the media dishes up. </p>
<p>Try this: [The</a> truth behind the taxes of Phil Mickelson - Jan. 23, 2013](<a href=“The truth behind the taxes of Phil Mickelson”>The truth behind the taxes of Phil Mickelson)</p>
<p>Personally, if some highly wealthy folks want to move from some condition or contraint they feel is too much, fine by me. In itself, one golfer doesn’t inform us. Smeone did make the radio comment, yesterday, that Phil’s sposors must be seething at the PR boondoggle.</p>
<p>Rain for the next 4 days here in sunny CA</p>
<p>Ucb, I get plenty of opportunities to do that here (PNW). ;)</p>
<p>Re: #227 and [The</a> truth behind the taxes of Phil Mickelson - Jan. 23, 2013](<a href=“The truth behind the taxes of Phil Mickelson”>The truth behind the taxes of Phil Mickelson)</p>
<p>Yes, I made the same calculation of his marginal tax rate in post #5.</p>
<p>Then again, I am not surprised that many people think that their taxes are higher than they actually are.</p>
<p>I wonder how many of those 100,000 that left were from places like Bakersfield or Riverside. I know here in a “desirable” suburb of Los Angeles (well, for the San Gabriel Valley side) prices have been steadily climbing back up and any house that’s in livable condition is snapped up pretty quickly. When house shopping I saw a number of houses that had multiple bids over asking by the end of the first open house. Out in Riverside/San Bernardino…not so much. I actually wonder how the housing markets in Las Vegas and Phoenix have been doing. I know they were both hit pretty hard by the real estate crash.</p>
<p>This post isn’t politics. Normally where I live, there are 30 homes for sale. Right now, there are 4. </p>
<p>I was told that homes are selling like candy and when I look at the inventory numbers that makes sense.</p>
<p>San Jose is the hottest real estate market in the country. SF is second hottest. Private equity firms are in the state buying thousands and thousands of homes. These firms
must see some value here otherwise they wouldn’t put their money here.</p>
<p>California is a 2 trillion dollar economy. If there is a deficit of a couple of
billion what does that mean in an economy of 2 TRILLION? Hmmmm. That is .1%. Right?</p>
<p>How many people are leaving the state? I think I read 100,000 people
left one year.
The population of the state is 38 million? 100,000 left? What percentage is that? Less than 1 percent? Right?</p>
<p>There are many states. You don’t like Califormia? Live somewhere else. California is a very expensive place to live. If people are leaving, why does it cost so much to live here?</p>
<p>It may be fine for you, Lookingforward, if these high flyers move from CA, but the big question is whether or not it will be fine for CA. As I said earlier, I don’t know the numbers as to what the damages might be and what the break point would be if there were a mass exodus from the very high income folks. I doubt if those in the lower end of the high income category, which is most of the population of the entire category is going anywhere since they have to stick around in order to make that high income and moving would be more expensive than staying even with the additional taxes. </p>
<p>But flight from an area from a large category of the contributors can be a serious matter. There is a little community in this area that has been hit and hurt by the flight of a group of high income folks. For whatever reason, the Japanese community moved away. THere are shops and people that are hurting and have lost their business from that move. When a large group of high income folks move away, and are not replaced, not only do the state and local governments lose the tax money from them, but the community is hurt too. I am more concerned about those people whose lives and livelihoods get a direct hit very quickly. I don’t think I can ever forget the fear in the eyes of my housekeeper when she got hit with cut backs from her clientale.</p>
<p>Phil. These celebrities shouldn’t talk too much. Shows their ignorance. </p>
<p>Most people don’t understand their taxes, but they sure have a lot of opinions. :)</p>
<p>“And Dstark, the inventory of houses in my brother’s area is crazy in terms of trying to buy anything for under a million bucks. He’s in a little ranch that would go for more than that. The housing crash did not hit the Silicon Valley area. But CA is a big state, and generalites will not hold. But I wish my neighborhood were as hot as his in terms of the housing market.”</p>
<p>Yeah…</p>
<p>Inventories are sooooooo low…and prices are sooooo high.</p>
<p>UCB… I like your post 224.</p>
<p>cpt- I find it hard to assume how many high-flyers will leave because Phil blabbed. It’s a big state and what happens in one enclave is not always representative. I know the economics lesson- I also have opinions on the stupocracy that goes on. If I were revealing more of where I’m from, I’d give outrageous examples. But, the fact is, to me: people get riled before they have sufficient details. </p>
<p>Yes, ucb, had seen your original. Now, I wonder what’s behind the CNN closing quote that “millionaires pay roughly 26% of their income in federal taxes, on average, according to William McBride…” Net? Based on traditional patterns of protections? What?</p>
<p>I’m also curious what class of folks is leaving CA and why. There must be breakdowns by age and SES. I find it critical that the #1 reason was jobs - and wonder what the answer gap was between jobs and the third reason, taxes.</p>
<p>Phil blabbed. Tiger says that’s why he doesn’t live there (I don’t know if he left or never lived there). That’s just two. We’ll see how many leave. For some they may just leave “on paper” if they have other residiences. The big test is how much more money CA will get from that income category in the next years.</p>
<p>Marin County…68 percent supported prop 30. Wealthy county… 68 percent…</p>
<p>“But, the fact is, to me: people get riled before they have sufficient details” </p>
<p>Amen to that. I’ve been guilty of it myself…</p>
<p>dstark,
The point about 100,000 more moving out than moving in was noteworthy because I think it was the first time this has happened.</p>