OP there are so many variables that this strategy might not work. For example to bring oboe back it might be your bad luck and exactly one more oboist might apply that happened to be from a more desirable state and you are out. That’s why no matter the situation applying to more sub 10% schools is never the answer. You always have to apply strategically. Apply to a few of those that you think match your profile and then expand. I see other posters went far and beyond answering but use common sense. Even if your chances increase or whatever still those chances are small and still you have to expand your application pool.You have limited time to visit schools and prepare apps. For best results you must use the time effectively.