@menloparkmom wrote “the point is that all the mathematical models created so far dont and cant help students know specifically which colleges they will or wont get into. All we can do is say is the decision process is holistic, or it is like trying to peer into a black hole, or it depends on so many factors that there IS no way to predict it with certainty. Which currently are all true.”
While what she says is certainly true, I don’t think it is the “point” wrt to the OP’s question and to what csdad2 is saying. To me it seems like csdad2 is simply answering the OP’s question while others are offering their opinions (which are sound and useful) but not really addressing the topic of the thread.
I actually have a D18 who fits the hypothetical profile although she plays an instrument which is not the oboe. I think it makes sense for her to apply to several of the top schools on the chance that one of the schools puts a preference on her instrument. However, I also recognize that there are many other considerations that go into her choices and reducing the process into a mathematical model is probably not the best idea.