Please quit throwing down a gauntlet. This isn’t a thread about math tools to predict.
The wildcard is how a kid prepares his hs years and then the app/supp itself. Stanford is not looking for exactly what Harvard is. Yale may need more X majors, while P gets an excess of apps from kids wanting those, this year. It goes on.
And most kids, even top performers, have trouble with the strategy in their apps, don’t even know what matters to each target.
You can use the example of a 4.0/1600 kid, but decisions aren’t made on stats alone, for TTs.
And then the institutional comes in. You may be the 50th kid from your sub region wanting that major, for H, while S got fewer. Or P has enough enrolled from your hs in recent years, now wants to focus on other hs in your county.
No math accounts for these critical differences -and more.
Sometimes, you have to let go of the modeling. It’s sport, I get that.