<p><a href=“Opinion | How the Deficit Got This Big - The New York Times”>Opinion | How the Deficit Got This Big - The New York Times;
<p>Editorial about how the deficit got so big that has some good points.</p>
<p>a comprehensive articulation of what will happen if we default</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Debt%20Ceiling%20Analysis%20FINAL.pdf[/url]”>http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Debt%20Ceiling%20Analysis%20FINAL.pdf</a></p>
<p>I was hoping that this topic would deal with the ramifications of the debt issue and planning for the possibility that we default - not on the debt issue itself nor the cause nor actions revolving around the debt issue nor any blame.</p>
<p>^alright, then. see my link above</p>
<p>Good post and good charts in that document. The material is a bit complicated but I found the DOE stuff and ed grants pretty easily. We’re in uncharted waters so there is no precedent as to what gets paid first so I assume that we’d make it up as we go.</p>
<p>I have a bad feeling that student loan payments would get held up.</p>
<p>so much for colleges starting in the fall</p>
<p>There is no way they choose default. Neither party will let it happen for fear that they would get the blame. They will likely just kick it down the way for another few months so we can be sure nothing else gets any attention for a year.</p>
<p>I am so scared that the US will default…</p>
<p>I am planning to leave the country the day before the default…</p>
<p>What day is the default? </p>
<p>Oh yeah…never…</p>
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<p>I take it that you’re 100% long on the stock market then? It should shoot into the stratosphere once the issue is resolved.</p>
<p>No i’m not…</p>
<p>But we aren’t going to default…</p>
<p>I’m 100% long but have started to make plans for a default. Hopefully they won’t have to be implemented.</p>
<p>I don’t think you are going to need those plans…</p>
<p>In the camp of no default also…and not sure if it does occur ,whether anything significant happens anyway</p>
<p>Why would the market take off just because we don’t default?</p>
<p>Markets are in a rectangle consolidation near resistance points. The debt-ceiling stuff is a drag in that it’s put the markets in range-bound mode. Assuming that good earnings continue, we should break to the north of the rectangle. The measured move on the $compq is significant. I don’t follow the $indu and $spx that closely but I believe that they have been in intermediate-term consolidations.</p>
<p>As the movie goes, “I didn’t understand a single word you just said.” I expected an answer about consumer confidence.</p>
<p>Oh. The Consumer Confidence number was 59 this morning, moderately better than expected.</p>
<p>IBfootballer’s cite (<a href=“http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Debt%20Ceiling%20Analysis%20FINAL.pdf[/url]”>http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Debt%20Ceiling%20Analysis%20FINAL.pdf</a>) is a very clear explanation of what won’t get paid if we default. </p>
<p>The relevant fact is that the government would only have about 60% of the money it needed to pay its bills. So, for example, suppose the White House chose to pay the interest on the debt, Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, defense vendors and unemployment insurance. Then it couldn’t pay:</p>
<p>Salaries of active-duty military
Veterans affairs
Federal salaries
Pell grants and special ed
FBI, federal courts
Federal Highway Administration
EPA
Tax refunds
and all other spending (foreign aid falls in this bucket, but it’s in the noise).</p>
<p>You can prioritize in a lot of other ways, but there’s no way to make 60% of the money pay 100% of the bills.</p>
<p>I realize many people are deficit hawks and want government cut but significant cuts to the federal government will be a drag on the overall economy. Much of the money spent by the government ends up in private sector companies. It will filter through the entire economy and hurt GDP. We need to get the deficit under control but a total slash and burn of federal spending is not good either.</p>
<p>7:11 pm
Financial Institutions Prepare to Make Pay Advances for Military
by David Benoit
Add a Comment</p>
<p>Financial institutions that specialize in serving military members are preparing to offer advances in the event the government doesn’t deliver a coming paycheck to active-duty military members.</p>
<p>USAA, the financial services company known for working with military families, and Navy Federal Credit Union, the world’s largest credit union by assets, are preparing to give some members an advance loan on their pay checks if the debt ceiling negotiations disrupt their pay. First Command Financial Services, a small financial services company, is taking similar steps as well.</p>
<p>From WSJ Debt-Ceiling realtime blog.</p>