Assuming your LoRs and essays are in line with your SATs then I will estimate a 15-25% chance at Michigan, 20-30% at UNC, 10% at Cornell CAS, 7-10% at Duke. I don’t know what your chances are in state at UVA, but I have to assume they are very good.
They are all worth applying to.
You mentioned most of your list is safety schools. I suggest 1 or 2 safety schools . . . the only reason I can think of you would want more is if they are very different and you are undecided which you would prefer. I would look for additional schools that you might like more your safeties and, ideally, more than UVA which does look like a Match/Target.
Good luck.