I’m not too great at these threads. I really can only talk about the stats portion, which appear on the low end for gpa. JB raises some good points.
That being said, I believe your stats get you a review and everything else is what closed the deal. Write your essays to address how you fit UChicago’s mission. Ask your teachers to tailor their reps to show how you fit UChicago. Lot of great kids out there, and ED1 gives you some hook like characteristics.
Do you need aid? I know they are supposed to be need blind, but who knows now.
If you want my call on a percentage, assuming your essays and LORs are in line with what I say, I’ll give you 40%. You won’t be a immediate reject and say 70% of a deferral or acceptance.
My son had better grades, but a lower SAT/ACT. (1540/34). He was also a recruited athlete and applied ED1.