Rate my chances for University of Chicago, Cornell, Dartmouth, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, UT Austin.

I assume your counselor has good data on UChicago and the qualifications of students accepted from your school. What does s/he say about it?

From what I see, your ED application can be used elsewhere with much higher probability. Georgetown perhaps or WUSTL.

If you still have your heart set on UChicago, a good test to check for fit is to look at the the uncommon essay. One of them should speak to you, and you should be able to write a good first draft quickly.