I understand the need to keep your expectations “reasonable” but you are only a sophomore - you need to gain some confidence - saying there’s “nothing exceptional or original” - that’s simply not true - everyone has something that makes them original - for instance- a sport stats loving female hockey player from California - that’s not all that common (despite what you may think). Plus your stats are great - top 3% with APs is not insignificant. Stats is not for the faint of heart and if you do well in that (AP Stats, Stats seminar), I think that would help as well. Just taking AP stats and a stats seminar will show your passion - not many students seem to go that route - taking the AP Calc route instead. I wouldn’t put too much freight on your PSAT. As others have said, you can boost your SATs through Khan academy, and you definitely should try to do that if you can. If you love hockey - then keep doing that - that’s an EC - especially if you get a leadership position etc. If you love crim psych - try mock trial at school, see if you like it. You don’t have to be the person standing up in the courtroom at first - but it will give you something to aim for. Now, as far as your list - SDSU has a great stats program, Berkeley is of course a reach for anyone, as would be UMich, and likely UCLA. You may want to look at some of the other WUE schools - Utah is pouring money into its Data Science program (think stats with machine learning and computing) - maybe take an AP Comp Sci class and see if you like that? At any rate, keep getting good grades, gain some confidence, and you’ll find a place you love.