Very interesting and thoughtful thread and sorry I am late to the discussion that has arisen latest.
@Blue and @lookingforward, based on our experience with DD and DS and being v involved with 2 ivy alumni associations (knowing their regional admissions people etc.), I think it’s really a bit of both.
More broadly, I’d say that @Postmodern seems to have it pretty close to how it seems to work in my observational experiences with our kids and those of close friends in similar situations. I’ve also been told anecdotally by a number of adcoms that the breakdown of ivy-elite kids is really more along the lines of: 10% in b/c they’re so academically overpowering plus great package; 20% in b/c they are (i) recruited athlete; (ii) identified by the school in some other area (arts, music, chemistry, etc.) as a person they really want to get; (iii) development/legacy hooked; (iv) URM; and (v) FGC - or some of all of those; and 10% deny b/c they don’t meet the basic numbers – leaving 60% more or less of the class to be pulled from a pile of highly qualified, capable people. That latter section is where all of the gnashing of teeth, etc. from the schools, students and parents comes from - how to make oneself stand out in that competitive, subjective effort on the one hand and how to offer admission to the right applicants on the other.
As some others on this thread have stated, I think it is an effort to solve more orthogonal vectors than many think… Consider, for example that all of these top-top schools want/need a class that is broadly racially and economically diverse, culturally diverse, has students from all 50 US states + a reasonable (and growing) group of int’l applicants, PLUS balance in terms of intended course of study, and point of view/interest as well as keeping the sports teams, theatrical/music departments and the fine arts all reasonably well stocked with incoming recruits. After all, that is for the most part one of their collective strongest selling points and they can’t back off it (unless, I guess you’re CalTech or MIT in which case you can be SO dominant in a field or set of related fields) that it doesn’t matter).
I really do believe based on all of the factors they’re trying to solve for that it is by necessity a holistic approach with an eye to yield and overall class composition. One additional tidbit that I have heard from senior admissions people at three different v elite schools (and that may be lost on some here) is that they also try to look (in addition to all of the other factors you’ve been discussing) for situations where attendance is going to be a positive, potentially life changing or life-directing experience. Why? Because these schools play the long game and they know based on their own stats that students who feel that way tend overall to perform better in school and do more on campus; and they also tend to be relatively successful out of school, and more importantly, that these folks attribute that success disproportionately to their alma mater and as a result make good alumni. They donate time and money, and act as ambassadors for the school in their respective personal and professional communities.
I’ve no idea how the admissions people make those sorts of judgments, but I have seen and heard it too many times for it not to have at least some kernel of truth. So, I do think that they are being as transparent as they can when describing what they look for - it’s just different every year in one degree or another.
None of that IMO should really be a source of parental frustration; IMO it’s just important to understand (and coach your applicant kids if possible) and grasp that even with all the best objective criteria applied there is still a subjective, opaque component that is going to be applied in the end - and while it won’t matter in most cases it will be the last ounce on the scales in the coin-flip close calls.