Sorry for the disappointment. Computer Science admissions are really tough, turning “match” schools into “reach” schools and so on.
The other thing this thread hasn’t really addressed is the broader context of the current pandemic. That’s going to have a huge effect on college admissions this year and next. It’s unclear whether schools will be able to start in the fall with normal on-campus living arrangements. Many families are talking about gap years rather than participating in remote-learning alternatives, but if that happens widely among this year’s high school grads, the next year could become crazy-competitive.
Waitlist admissions will also be affected, although nobody can say for sure yet what the effect will be. My guess is that private colleges and universities where many students pay full-price or close to it and where many students come from outside the school’s region, will see a big drop in yield and will make a lot of waitist offers. Whereas schools like UCSD will see yield go up as students who could have spent more to go out of state decide to stay closer to home and spend less. Thus… not to be a pessimist, but I think the current situation lowers your chance of getting accepted from the waitlist. (Also, if you do get a waitlist offer, it might not be for the CS major.)
There are schools still accepting applications, but they’re typically not schools where you could get full financial aid and get your out-of-pocket costs down to your 10K-ish EFC.
If your home situation is a healthy one where you wouldn’t mind living for now, the CC-to-UC option could be a really good choice. Look at which ones have the Computer Science AA-T degree https://adegreewithaguarantee.com/en-us/Find-Colleges , and if there’s more than one near you, compare their Honors programs and their offerings in your non-major areas of interest (for example, some CC’s have much stronger performing arts programs than others). There will be plenty of bright and driven kids around you if you choose this option - especially this year, when many families are adapting to changes in their financial circumstances. You can apply to UCSD (where your chances will be good if your grades are high), TAG to one of the 6 campuses in the guarantee program (Irvine, Davis, SB, Riverside, Merced, & Santa Cruz) or utilize the AA-T path to a CSU with strong CS (SDSU, Cal Poly, SJSU, etc.).
Also, don’t discount the option of UCM. Do talk to your guidance counselor about your ELC status and confirm whether you can expect an offer from Merced. There’s a CS major, and going to a smaller UC can have its advantages. You would find your tribe there, especially in CS. Sure, UCSC is better known for CS, but it’s also a struggle to get into the classes you need there, and the housing crunch is terrible - I would not want to be a low-income student trying to find affordable off-campus housing in Santa Cruz after the first two years. Off-campus housing in Merced is plentiful and affordable.
I would keep scanning the horizon for other options and cross fingers for UCSD, but for the most part assume that it’ll be a choice between UCM and the CC transfer pathway. Or, as your mom says, go ahead and take the gap year, especially if you have a solid plan for how to spend the time (i.e. a job that you’re pretty sure of in spite of economic upheaval - note that you cannot take college classes or you’ll lose your stats as a freshman applicant, but you could take non-credit coding classes, for example, and strengthen your background and demonstrated interest in the field)… but be clear that it’s going to be a tough year to apply, and you’ve experienced how tough it is already for CS applicants.
Personally, I’d take the gap year option only if I wanted to go far from home. If I wanted to stay in the CA public system, I wouldn’t postpone a whole year just to get into a “better” school as a freshman, when the CC pathway is a more reliable path to the same ultimate destination. OTOH, a consultant could help you find good target schools where you could get full-need-met aid; for example, there are schools like Lehigh and Lafayette, where Asian students are under-represented and where Early Decision applicants have a strong advantage - a well-chosen ED application to a school where you’d offer both racial/ethnic and geographic diversity could potentially land you an acceptance with a full-need-met aid package. Is it worth waiting and gambling vs. taking one of the birds-in-the-hand? Hard to say - depends what you are looking for. If I were you, I’d deposit at UCM to keep that option open, as the gap year or CC decision can be made much later, and we can’t know right now how events will unfold over the next few months that could inform your decision in ways that we can’t predict today. Hang in there - it will work out!
