You are in-state for these schools with great stats, which should help your chances a lot.
The large majority of applicants to the top ranked schools (MIT, Harvard, Stanford, Duke, …) have excellent stats and would be academically fully qualified to attend. Most are of course rejected. We can almost never be quite sure why.
However, it looks to me that you are likely to do very well wherever you end up. If you do end up at UNC or NC State do not underestimate these schools. The top students at UNC and NC State will be just as strong as the top students at Stanford or Brown or Duke. In fact, when I was a graduate student at Stanford one of my best friends was a UNC graduate, and he was one of the strongest students in the program.