I don’t entirely buy the “this person may not attend” pre-emptive rejection theory. What I suspect is that applicants who are very well qualified may not invest as much in making their app strong. An essay that talks about enthusiasm for marching band finds itself in the hands of an AO at a school with no marching band. Plans to pursue xyz are revealed when only graduate students can do xyz at that school. And of course, the schools that accept by major are exactly that. The kid who wants to study film at NYU is not in the same pool as,the one who wants to study English.
In any case, OP, don’t sweat it. Each school has its own criteria. If your stats clear the hurdle for the schools you are waiting to hear from, you are still very much in the game.