<p>abc–your numbers on Iraqis killed and the subprime losses are off by huge factors. The latest Iraqi casualty number is around 150-200K. The total losses in the subprime mortgages is probably closer to $50 Billion and counting.</p>
<p>The early years of the housing recovery were just fine. Not every good housing market–especially on the heels of a recession is a bubble. Most runups have been sustained and just followed by a flat or slightly soft period. Chicago, Seattle, SF, and NY and other solid markets have rarely had large declines in the last 30 years or so. They have a run and then it levels off for a few years. My old house that I had in Evanston was worth about 125,000 in the 70’s, 300,000 in the 80’s, 700,000 in the 90’s and is probably around 800,000 today. The Flippers and other aggressive subprime borrowing did not become really common until 2005 or so. </p>
<p>Hillary and many others have said a small adjustment to SS withholding will keep the fund solvent for decades. Very few see it as a major crisis. Just a problem that needs tending. </p>
<p>Quite honestly I really like the cheaper $$. It has helped keep commercial property values solid, increased our exports by double figures, made US cars actually price competitive and encouraged foreign makers to locate plants here where they are building great cars, and been a boon to US tourism and second home buying by foreign nationals that was way off. The increased cost of oil has as many positive aspects as negative as it has us seriously working on alt sources and more efficient use which will stretch the supply significantly. Even with the $$$ down many imports have remained level or declining in price as they get more efficient too. Win Win.</p>
<p>As previously noted, it is still impossible to determine. The 300 billion was a low ball estimate.
There are sources quoting 500 billion, so I won’t link to that, as nothing is reliable.</p>
<p>So it did, I now see. I’m not sure if it was a typo or if I was copying a source, which I didn’t save. Since nobody is sure yet what the final price tag will be, it didn’t really matter.</p>
<p>The original argument is that the war in Iraq will cost taxpayers more than the subprime. That is obvious without a definite subprime total, since Iraq estimates are in the trillions, and subprime in the billions, using any source.</p>
<p>Iraq also has additional non-monetary costs. I suppose one can argue the subprime will, too. There were a lot of suicides after the 1929 crash.</p>
<p>Barrons, money supply, and credit expansion, matter. Check out the money supply growth and the credit expanision we had. The Fed doesn’t have too much credibility these days. (They played a huge part in the money and credit expansion). :)</p>
<p>Cheap money works until it doesn’t. Then you get problems like we have now.</p>
<p>Hey. People make money in bubbles. Lots of money. </p>
<p>How much money through refinancing did people take out of their houses the last few years?</p>
<p>What was it… $600 to $800 billion a year? It was great for the economy while it lasted. Now that is over. Thank goodness for the $150 billion stimulus package. :)</p>
<p>When excess credit is being created the economy is great. When it has to be paid back, it’s a *****. :)</p>
<p>Anyway, you’re right. Real estate people like cheap money.</p>
Which is to say, after the regressive worker’s tax (FICA) has for decades subsidized the funding of the nation’s budget, hiding how artificially low the less regressive income tax (which is assessed on earned and unearned income alike) has been set, the reverse will never happen. The workers subsidize the wealthy, never the other way around. And the double whammy is that without the transfer from the FICA overpayments that we’ve been using to offset the budget shortfall from income tax, future income taxes will have to increase just to avoid running even bigger deficits. Republican fiscal policy of the past 30 years has a lot in common with the real estate flippers - it can’t go on forever. Eventually the time comes when you have to pay the piper.</p>
<p>And if we should happen to encounter other challenges in the years to come, we’re operating with one hand tied behind our back because we’ve already used up 9+ trillion dollars of our not unlimited credit. Deficit spending without a good reason is a bad idea. And making Leona’s dog richer isn’t a good enough reason to do it.</p>
<p>Actually, the reason for the problems in Social Security are ones no one wants to talk about. For the past 70 years, Blacks, and especially Black males, have been subsidizing the Social Security of white folks, and especially of white women. Black men were paying into the fund, but rarely lived long enough to collect a penny. My 85-year-old mother has been living on the backs of Black men for more than two decades now.</p>
<p>But now, and for the first time, Black men are living long enough to collect. Now the solvency of Social Security depends on the FICA paid by undocumented immigrants, who will never collect a penny. Wanna sink Social Security fast? Kick 'em all out.</p>
<p>We need to kill the entitlement beasts while we still have a chance. Vote Republican. W was too much of a “compassionate conservative” , aka wishywashy to have made a change.</p>
<p>You’re kidding, right? W is neither compassionate nor conservative. Not by a long shot. And he’s not wishywashy - he’s consistent in his arrogance and stubbornness. And he DID make a LOT of changes. For the 1st time in history, the US is known as a country who invades other countries. Habeaus Corpus got suspended. The Patriot Act removed many of the liberties that had defined what made our country so great. Our economic system is heading towards collapse…for starters.</p>
<p>Yes, we call them the smart ones. Guys like Sam Zell got very rich buying when markets were way down and selling near the peak. His Equity Office group recently unloaded a huge portfolio of office properties to Blackstone at top $$$. Now he bought the Tribune Company.</p>