<p>I think that many are confused as to how many actual ‘clear admits’ there are. Probably no more than 4-5 every year, because these students need to be <em>undeniably</em> better than every other applicant. Look at it this way: there are 12 USAMO winners every year, and I think about 1/2 get into Harvard (really). Maybe 1, who has been on the IMO team since sophomore year/does research at a high level/also a ridiculous pianist (like Evan) is a clear admit.</p>
<p>Believe me, there are only a few awards that are almost direct acceptances, and these limit it to the top 5-10ish of the candidate pool. For everyone else, these just make your academic record look stronger but you still need to demonstrate a lot of other qualities</p>