Rest in Peace: College Closings

Parents Forum
1217

The gild is off the lily. Not only are there fewer “customers” for all colleges, the value of an education has become a question of ROI. The costs are just too high, and states need to commit to educating their own at rates that make going elsewhere/private more about economics and less about prestige.

The very small LACs and rural campuses are dying now, but pretty soon it’s going to be much larger LACs with good reputations that aren’t going to be able to attract and retain professors and/or students.

Per College Raptor right now, there are 486 schools with over $50K per student in the endowment. That’s a lot of schools that are dancing without much of a fallback position. Losing 10%…15%…whatever percent… could inflict fatal damages to more and more schools. It’s a viscous cycle that is going to dramatically change education in the coming decades.

1218

I don’t deny that there will continue to be college closings, and it’s not necessarily a bad thing. I just wish that it would be educationally ineffective schools that would be closing.

There are schools that do a great job of educating their students…taking non-academic superstars in as incoming freshmen and then graduating a bunch of academically strong seniors. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to suss out which schools provide a great education versus those that are diploma mills doing anything they can to keep the money flowing in. I think if there was greater transparency about the quality of the education provided, then students and families could be making better-informed decisions, rather than depending on the strength of marketing departments (which I sometimes think is not the strength of some educationally strong institutions).

As an example of how educational quality might be able to be shared, I’m going to quote myself from a different thread:

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1219

Nah, the ROI of a college degree, nearly no matter the field (yes y’all, even majors like gender studies and philosophy), is still positive, and way positive.

But unfortunately, we are in a moment where the belief in the ROI of a college degree has become politically determined in a way that hasn’t happened except in a much more minor way around 1967–1972—and that has very real effects on the way that higher education is funded. And couple that with ongoing demographic changes? Yeah, it’s a tough environment for the postsecondary education market right now.

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1220

No. You are entirely wrong about the futures of the LACs with good reputations.

You seem unaware of what the academic market looks like. Except for a handful of fields, there is an overproduction of PhDs. The number of really good applicants that these LACs are getting for each position is enormous, and these are faculty from the very top PhD programs.

You also seem to be entirely unaware just how coveted positions at good LACs happen to be.

Add to that the fact that graduates of LACs who do PhDs tend to want to become a faculty member at a LAC. Since LACs, especially LACs with good reputations, have, on average, more than 10% of their students who end up doing PhDs, there is a supply of potential faculty at LACs which far exceeds the number of faculty needed by these LACs. Every year, a number of students, equivalent to 10%-15% population of the college around a decade a go, are getting PhDs. That is roughly around 80%-100% of the number of existing faculty. This is every year, and, of the 200-400 faculty members of each college, only a few are replaced, maybe 2-3 at most. So each year, there are 50-300 new PhDs who did their undergraduates at a LAC for every position at a LAC which opens. That is without considering the number of students who did their undergraduates at other types of colleges who are really interested in teaching at a LAC.

The job satisfaction of faculty at LCs with good reputations is high, as well.

So no, there will never be an issue attracting, hiring, or retaining faculty. There are failed searches, even at top schools, but these are, invariably, the result of internal departmental issues that are as old as search committees, and are actually less common, proportionally, at LACs.

As for attracting students? Even considering the fact that most applicants apply to multiple LACs, there are far more excellent applicants to “top” LACs than there are places for them.

So no, Bates, Middlebury, Williams, Vassar, Hamilton, Kenyon, Denison, Carleton, Macalester, Pomona, Occidental, etc, will never have a problem finding excellent faculty or excellent students. I do not understand what makes you believe otherwise.

On the other hand, small religiously affiliated colleges and small rural colleges with really limited name recognition outside their immediate area, especially in rural areas in regions which are economically depressed and/or, with dropping populations, will continue to close. The communities that they have served historically is smaller and poorer than it was, while the richest people in the communities are more likely to attend a college somewhere else.

That actually makes absolutely no sense. You’re essentially saying that the 486 colleges that have MORE than $50K per student in the endowment are at financial risk? Essentially, you’re saying that having a LARGE endowment puts a college at financial risk?

Please re-read and clarify what you are trying to say here, because I don’t think that what you wrote was what you were trying to say.

In any case, it really isn’t simply endowment per student in any case.

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1221

Sorry for the confusion…let me clarify in reverse.

My statement was meant to suggest that those with less than $50k… not the 486 above… could be in jeopardy at some point.

I created an arbitrary line at $50k/student. I did that because it’s a round number, and because I’d read a few things this spring that many schools approaching the $100k/year mark suggest they are spending $30k-$50k out of their endowment to fund the “total cost” of an education. Whether a school has 1,000 students or 5,000, they are “built” to support that number of students (dorms, classrooms, infrastructure). If and or when the headcount starts to shrink, finances start to tighten and cost cutting begins to erode the product. It’s a spiral that is incredibly difficult to reverse. It take time… but eventually schools will fail.

I was not talking about the 486 above $50k… I was talking about the over 3,000 colleges and universities without that level of endowment. That’s a lot of schools, and many will or already have made financial mistakes that will prove fatal.

To your broader point… your bias is clearly articulated in your response.

I never said any of those would struggle. I don’t think they will. Ignoring the endowment comments (the lowest endowment per student on your listed schools is over $250k/student on the previously attached link), you’re focusing on schools I am not.

Using USNews as a list of schools, I’ll ignore the “national LACs” and focus on the 370 regional colleges. If you look at the schools in the number 10 spot on all 4 regions (a total of 9 schools including ties), their average acceptance rate is 89%. Those schools are the top 10% line of the group (roughly ranked 40 out of 370).

I picked one of the schools in the group and looked at the endowment (the College of Mount Saint Vincent)… the have $15,600/student. They are in the Bronx. It’s pure accident I picked them… this is not about them. I can see a lot of reasons to be worried about money and student population…and they are in the top 10%. There are 330 other colleges just like them (or worse).

I apologize for any confusion, but I wasn’t talking about the NESCAC schools when I was commenting on small liberal arts schools… I was talking about the majority of schools that don’t have threads on CC… like the ones being discussed in the previous 1,180 comments on this thread.

To @dfbdfb’s point, I agree 100%. I appreciate that even from almost any school, the lifetime value of a degree is very positive and worth the investment, but I’m not the one these schools have to convince.

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1222

Many predictions have proven wrong about the future of colleges. In the early 1970’s Boston University, Boston College and New York University were all facing bankruptcy and there were rumors that they would close. Big urban universities were unpopular was the mantra. Look at those three schools today.

In 1990 Northeastern University faced an enrolment crisis, the freshman class was 1000 students short of target. Northeastern faced another enrolment “crisis” in 2022, they were 1500 students overenrolled in the freshman class.

All of those schools had good leadership that saw them through the crises and set them on an upward trajectory.

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1223

Agree with you 100%. Except that sometimes it isn’t good leadership… a school can keep its head above water when kids preferences, the economy, demographic trends, etc. go the right way.

There are a bunch of colleges a lot smaller than NYU that have managed to be perceived as “you might get to Wall Street from here”. Smart money would have said they’d be slated for closure decades ago. But get a couple of recruiters from Morgan Stanley and Citibank to show up to interview for back-office jobs and boom- you’re a “Wall Street feeder”.

I remember a poster from a few years ago that was betting the farm (HELOC, liquidating retirement funds) to send her kid to Pace. His backup was Adelphi. The aid they were getting was terrible but the kid was adamant. The Northeast based parents were trying to explain that there were MUCH more cost-effective ways to do what they were trying to do…but from 2,000 miles away, schools like that seem like “sure bets” for a life of sunshine, roses, and high compensation.

Not knocking either school btw…good choices for some kids when they are affordable, but reality stings sometimes.

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1224

I agree. After the baby boomers, people saw a big demographic cliff that would cause impending doom for many colleges. Except high school graduates started attending college at increasingly higher rates, staving off the anticipated bust. When there have been downturns in the economy, it also can be a lifeline for colleges teetering on the financial edge as people (especially young adults) who can’t find a job then decide to get more education.

That said, however, I’m not foreseeing an outside force coming through that will stave off the talk of impending college closures.

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1225

OK, now it makes sense.

However, remember that public universities don’t actually need much of an endowment, or really have an endowment at all, at least to stay open. UIC went for years with no endowment, and U Florida has an endowment of less than $50,000 per student.

So we’re talking about private colleges, which serve less than 1/4 of the students population, and fewer than 1/3 of the students at four year non-profit colleges.

I don’t really think that the closures of small, mostly faith-based LACs is a particularly college-related issue. I think that it’s part of the economic and social collapse of many rural areas in the USA, and the disappearance of the middle class, especially in these rural areas. This also affects regional campuses of public universities as well.

These colleges were also established when the majority of the USA lived in small towns in rural areas, and travel was more difficult and more expensive. Nowadays, 75% of the population live in urban areas, most families have cars, and information about colleges across the country is readily available, at least to families who can afford college. So most of the communities that these colleges have served historically can find colleges which are either more affordable or have more name-recognition for the same price.

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1226

Those colleges may be very small with limited majors and programs (perhaps originally chosen due to interest in their local area) and therefore may be unattractive for that reason to most out of area students whom they need to attract due to a declining market in their local area.

Being religious may also be a fit for the local area, but is another factor that can reduce the number of out of area students who are interested.

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1227

That true, and also, most neighboring regions where there are potential students who know about the college are also likely suffering from economic depression.

However, I will also admit that there are some colleges that have a wider reputation and which served a much wider community than their local one that are also closing. Colleges like Antioch College, with a long history of attracting students from across the country - Stephen Jay Gould attended Antioch, and he was from a lower middle class family in NYC, as did Rod Serling and Leonard Nimoy.

Those colleges are probably more along the lines of what @EyeVeee was describing.

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1228

Sadly, I now search for the publicly financial statements of each school my son is considering. My son loves the smaller sized schools and it is just good due diligence. In my research, I have found a couple of smaller schools that are bleeding money and consistently over the past few years. I am very wary of schools that pay ridiculous compensation to senior school officials and thrid party contracts (mostly IT services).

it is very depressing because these schools serve purpose and have benefited students for years. I would not be surprised if some even bigger schools start cutting programs.

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1229

Bigger schools often do eventually cut programs (or merge small programs into larger somewhat related ones) that there is a lack of student interest in. That may not be too visible to the general public and press if there were not other reasons (like multiple programs being cut at the same time in response to financial troubles).

But if you can look up historical catalogs for a college, you may want to compare the list of majors and programs from decades ago to now.

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1230

You might also look at Moody’s (or S&P) ratings…

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1231

In that these categories lack depth, the average acceptance rates for the 10th ranked schools shouldn’t be especially surprising. For example, the, say, 9th-ranked school in a category may be closer in overall score to the bottom school than to the top school.

1232

How could institutions with an 89% acceptance rate not have similar acceptance rates to schools at the bottom of the list? I’m not sure this was your point, but it’s fair to say that regional colleges accept nearly everyone.

That’s a tenuous position that can quickly become unsustainable if the student population drops.

1233

Because, for most of them, that is precisely because that is their institutional mission.

Also, important to remember, because people often forget it: high acceptance rate ≠ low quality

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1234

Agreed, but you can only educate those who attend so long as you generate enough revenue to remain open. There is little room for contraction, so you need the students.

This isn’t a forum on quality, it’s a discussion on sustainability.

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1235

Generally, public colleges are sustainable because they are backed by taxpayers, far beyond any revenue and government assistance they need.

It’s the reason I buy municipal bonds of schools like Morehead State, E Kentucky, Shawnee State, Southern Missouri, Missouri Western, and others like U of North Dakota.

Some have bad credit ratings but I can’t imagine ever a default.

States will continue to support them, even with declining enrollments, even if they cut programs or people - or like in PA combining for admin savings - but they’ll still stay solvent - as opposed ot private schools.

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1236

I don’t know that it’s really a positive on net, but the fact that so much of the professoriate these days is on some sort of a contingent status means that there is a lot of room for enrollment contraction most places.

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