To think about TO properly, consider game theory. Imagine a world where all schools required tests and weighed them heavily. Well, there are is some subset of kids that are really bright but don’t test well. Let’s also assume for a moment that holistic admissions can reliably identify those kids.
Given this situation, if ONE school moved from test-required to TO, it would have a tremendous first mover advantage. It could identify the great kids that other schools miss and get them with little competition. But once many schools do the same thing, the advantage diminishes. With 1000+ schools doing that, there is no advantage to them in aggregate.
Now, UChicago going test-optional changes the equation a bit. It is the only really elite school to go TO. The question now becomes “Are there really many elite students that don’t do well on standardized tests, and can UChicago identify them and recruit them, giving them a first mover advantage among these students?”
I am not convinced the answer yes, mainly because the tests are not really that hard given their lower ceilings compared to past tests. I am also not convinced that colleges can reliably identify kids that are strong but don’t do well on standardized tests. I expect a lot of kids that won’t be able to handle the rigor, and that’s not good for anyone.
My kids also did well on standardized tests with nothing more than basic study guides. Yes, they are from high achievement school districts, but 35 years ago I also did well when I took the tests from a low achievement school district. It’s far easier to do so now with the ample free test prep on the Internet.
My take on UChicago going TO is that Nondorf is looking for another rabbit to pull out of the hat in order to continue the magic that he has been able to do so far. I’m not sure this one will be successful.