My view with colleges like this is if your basic numbers (GPA and test scores) seem to put you in their normal competitive range, I definitely would not talk myself out of giving it a shot at some thoughtful choices. Like, even if you did not do the max APs available, other kids at your HS have more “impressive” ECs, or whatever, you are right these colleges are used to not necessarily getting the “Oh, that kid will get in anywhere they apply” sort of kids. They just want great kids who really fit their institutional plans.
And then given that, I think it pays to sort of put yourself in their shoes and imagine what they might be looking for. And in fact, not just imagine, but investigate.
Like, you can look at their CDS and sites like Naviance to further refine how they seem to treat numbers–to me, it was apparent that at least for our HS, some of these colleges were more obviously looking for numbers in a certain range, some were more fuzzy.
You can also look at what they said on their admissions pages, in any blogs or podcasts or such they might have, recorded information sessions, interviews, or so on. When you have it narrowed down a bit, if you can visit, great. If not, do some live online information sessions, see if they are sending a representative to a college fair nearby, email Admissions and ask to be put into contact with students who do things you might be interested in, and so on. All this can provide great information AND will be demonstrating interest (which to me is not some sort of trick, they just want to know you have really thought about their college as an individual institution and have specific reasons for applying).
Ultimately, I think the goal is to conclude, “You know what, yes, X is looking for applicants like me.” And then you pick a few like that you really like yourself, and write your best possible applications–which is not really that hard since you have already thought about what they are looking for and have good reasons to think you are it. And then see what happens.
No guarantees, of course, reaches are reaches. But if you do all that as diligently and thoughtfully as you can, and are in their normal range of numbers, I think it is worth a shot.