<p>1)Should this theoretically be much different than US News’s predicted vs. actual graduation rates?
2) Would you get an even higher prediction of graduation rates by including % class rank, and some sort of relative wealth measure, as additional dependent variables?</p>
<p>That there is a substantial correlation seems to me to be a rather inutitively obvious finding. The residuals are actually more interesting.</p>
<p>IMO, extrapolation of these findings to particular situations must be made with care and insight. An individual has only his/her own SAT scores and capabilities, not the aggregate scores of a particular institution. If an institution’s scores as a whole are high, and its graduatiion rate as a whole is high, that does not mean you personally have a higher chance of graduating from there than from elsewhere. Your chance will be largely based on your own capabilities, in each case. </p>
<p>A perhaps more interesting analysis would be graduation rates of individuals with particular score ranges as they compare to the institution’s median ranges. One might find that chances of graduation go down when particular scores are far below the institution’s medians, vs. when the same scores are closer to the institution’s medians. But data is not available for this.</p>
<p>Edit: this was cross-posted with #19. Time out for basketball.</p>