the AI is not varying massively from year to year so much that coaches are way off even 2 years out. Hopefully, @Karmakid (parent of a 9th grader wanting to “commit” to an Ivy ) will comment but his/her post is exactly consistent with what I have been saying in terms of verbal offers to 9th graders.
The NY Times says an AI of 200 which is fine for most teams is a 3.7 UW GPA and 1300 SAT. not that hard for rich white households which is why verbal offers can be made to 9th graders.
https://thechoice.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/ivy-academic-index/