During my son’s cycle, the AI went up one point from one year to the next at HYP, two points at Dartmouth and stayed even at Penn (I could have the last two flipped around). Depending on a kid’s GPA, that could be the difference between needing a 30 or a 31 on the ACT. It is just math. Which is why I said that unless the recruit can well exceed the target provided two or three cycles out, I would not be confident when the rubber meets the road.
And once again, no one serious is disputing that a kid or two can be offered very early. My son played with two kids who had early Ivy offers (early junior year in their case). Both ended up in the Big Ten, one at OSU. They were both good enough that a team would adjust their board a bit here and there to get them in the class. They wouldn’t do that for my kid, he had to hit realistic numbers before offers started showing up. Life is unfair. But again, the dispute is with the idea that recruiting classes are filling in ninth or tenth grade, or that an Ivy coach is telling a ninth grader “just get a 30 ACT or 1300 SAT and you will be admitted”. There is no way that is happening.