<p>On the one hand, applications might go down since students will actually be applying to their first choice instead of gaming the system and applying to Stanford SCEA. If that happens, the only way Stanford’s early rate would go down is if it accepted fewer people, which it might since it will expect a higher yield on those applicants.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Stanford (not sure about Yale) has continually had jumps in early applications, so there might actually be an increase in early apps, or the number would stay roughly constant (if the increase is offset by the loss of applicants to H/P early). It just depends on how many people are now applying to H/P early instead of Stanford/Yale.</p>
<p>So yes, Stanford and Yale will probably lose applicants to H/P early, but they will also expect higher yields on their early pools, so they end up accepting fewer people and deferring more.</p>