Scholar-athlete turned just scholar with limited extracurriculars

It is my understanding that Michigan is brutal when it comes to OOS merit $$. We are personally aware of two grads who went with same high grades, etc and received $0 and $3000/yr respectively. If that holds true Michigan will not be affordable. Especially since my son could go to ASU Barrett Honors College tuition free. He has zero problems going there. Going to Barrett (where his sister is) would be the simplest for all, but we thought he could/should apply around just to see where he could get in and maybe get some $$ and make the decision later.