Without disagreeing, I will just note in my own forays into various CDS, it was apparent individual colleges could experience pretty different numbers of holes to fill in different cycles.
I’ve generally assumed this represents a problem with not being able to precisely predict yield in advance. Like if yield was perfectly predictable, you should always be able to nail your enrollment target.
But if yield is not perfectly predictable, then if you are incautious, you could end up significantly overenrolled. Which happens sometimes, in fact, and it usually seems pretty disruptive and not exactly great for marketing.
OK, so you probably would want to have your central estimate of yield to be somewhat below your target enrollment, in case actual yield was above your central estimate. But then of course if it is not, you will need to pick up some more people from the waitlist. And if in fact the error was the other way–yield was lower than the central estimate expected–you might have quite a few holes to fill that cycle.
Anyway, just pointing out this dynamic helps explain why a college may end up short of enrollment after the initial yield more often than not, and also why any such shortfall could vary significantly year to year.
Totally agree.
I just think many seniors do not understand WL. I know kids who were expecting to move from WL as late as in May or June. Kid would say, " I committed to X but I am not attending. I am on WL at 3 schools and I will attend one of them… " Then all schools close their WL and student feels drained and angry…
Absolutely. As gardenstategal was also explaining, whether you even have a chance can depend on what “buckets” they still need to fill, how many spots in that bucket, and where you stand on that list.
Totally unpredictable in most cases, so definitely not something to count on unless and until they actually call.
I understand this, and unfortunately, it’s on the student to understand how it works. We know that the odds of winning the lottery are low. We know who else is trying out for the play. This is no different. Admittedly, the WL scenarios our kids face are difficult from those when we applied, and that doesn’t help. Everyone who is here on CC can get up to speed in advance and face this situation knowledgeably. (And I admit, I discussed this site when I was trying to figure out what an ED deferral “really” meant – 9 years ago!)
The counselors at our school learned to do a good job of explaining this to everyone before it happened. Some schools provide the numbers from past cycles in their WL offers to temper expectations. And if you’re here as a parent, you can help your kid if/when they end up in this boat.