I always distinguish between reach and out-of-reach when students ask for chances. If a college is as selective as, say, Duke, and a student’s scores are notably lower than the 25th percentile, then that college is out of reach without a big hook. If the 25th percentile for test scores at Duke is around 2100 (just guessing here), then anyone under 2000 probably plays basketball or has buildings named after him. There are also outliers. Some of the bottom percentile in Critical Reading scores might belong to students whose first language isn’t English (and earned 800s in Math). The lower Math scores could belong to published poets, or outstandingly accomplished performing artists, with near-perfect Verbal scores. The outliers can be students who submitted both ACT and SAT scores because their results were different, but they had some great section scores in each. If you are just a typical White or Asian suburban kid, with good grades, routine ECs, and above-average SAT/ACT scores, you aren’t going to Duke. It is not a reach. It is not even a “High Reach.” It is out of reach.