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<p>Do you have any cite that would convince us that the work being done is not stopping the disease from spreading faster? The disease is spreading, but why do you believe that it wouldn’t be spreading faster if not for foreign workers?</p>
<p>“Really? Why don’t you throw out some facts you care about and I’ll tell you if I think they are true. What would that prove anyway? It would prove that you believe them to be true, while I may or may not. Then what?”</p>
<p>So, IOW, you’ve got nothing. </p>
<p>Doctors Without Borders advises its volunteers not to work during the 21 days following their return. From the protocol:
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<p><a href=“http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/msf-protocols-staff-returning-ebola-affected-countries”>http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/msf-protocols-staff-returning-ebola-affected-countries</a></p>
<p>I don’t, CF, just that I’ve read it is continuing to spread exponentially, and CDC/WHO estimates are 10,000 new cases by Dec., and 1.4 million new cases by January. i haven’t seen anything published that changes this prediction, have you? If so, please provide so I can reassess my opinion.</p>
<p>“When the HCW come back from West Africa, are they treating patients in the US during that 21-day period?”</p>
<p>You know they have been coming back from stints in West Africa for many months now and not one HCW until Spencer has been found to have Ebola. I assume they monitored twice a day but beyond that picked up their lives where they left off. </p>
<p>There hasn’t been anyone those doctors/nurses have come into contact with who have gotten Ebola, have there? </p>
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<p>Nope, but maybe that’s because they follow DWB protocol which advises them not to work for 21 days. Thanks, old mom.</p>
<p>Have you already forgotten about Writebol, Brantley, the doctor treated in Nebraska, the nameless HCW who was treated at Emory, the Norwegian, the German? All of those HCW were diagnosed in Africa and then flown to their respective countries for treatment in the plastic suits to prevent contamination. Who knows who they might have infected in Africa.</p>
<p>Patient contact tracing and quarantine stopped the virus in Nigeria. That seems more efficacious in stopping the disease than patient care. Of course, patient supportive care is great for the individual, I’m not saying that. But it doesn’t seem to be stopping the spread of the disease into the rest of the population.</p>
<p>Two Governors’ Shifts on Ebola Are Criticized as Politics, Not Science
<a href=“Cuomo’s and Christie’s Shifts on Ebola Are Criticized as Politics, Not Science - The New York Times”>http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/nyregion/two-governors-shifts-on-ebola-are-criticized-as-politics-not-science.html</a></p>
<p><a href=“http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/achenblog/wp/2014/10/06/paul-farmer-on-ebola-this-isnt-a-natural-disaster-this-is-the-terrorism-of-poverty/”>http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/achenblog/wp/2014/10/06/paul-farmer-on-ebola-this-isnt-a-natural-disaster-this-is-the-terrorism-of-poverty/</a></p>
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<p>Bay, you brought it up. </p>
<p>Might be helpful to read the paragraph ABOVE the MSF recommendation not to return to work for 21 days:
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<p>“Have you already forgotten about Writebol, Brantley, the doctor treated in Nebraska, the nameless HCW who was treated at Emory, the Norwegian, the German? All of those HCW were diagnosed in Africa and then flown to their respective countries for treatment in the plastic suits to prevent contamination.”</p>
<p>No I have not forgotten about them at all. I didn’t mention them because they did not fly home and then get sick. I am referring to the countless other HCW who have been going over and coming home perfectly fine. There are way more of them then the few who have gotten Ebola. </p>
<p>Before Spencer, I believe the count was 17 who had Ebola and one was Duncan and two were the nurses who cared for him, and the nurse in Spain who cared for the missionary. Compare that with the number of HCW who have come back from West Africa and been absolutely fine. </p>
<p>Dr. Spencer followed that protocol, too. He had not returned to work.</p>
<p>“Nope, but maybe that’s because they follow DWB protocol which advises them not to work for 21 days.”</p>
<p>No, It’s because they never came down with Ebola. If they had we would have heard about it and about people they may have exposed. </p>
<p>Following the 21 day protocol doesn’t prevent a HCW from Ebola. </p>
<p>Great article, dstark. Thanks for posting.</p>
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<p>OK, now we’re in my area of expertise (exponential growth). And way, way out of yours, obviously, Bay. You’re embarrassing yourself.</p>
<p>Of course the disease is spreading exponentially. That’s what infectious diseases do: each person infects on average N other people, and if N (that’s the exponent) is greater than 1, the disease will continue to spread. The issue is reducing N. You want to reduce it to less than 1, but any reduction means fewer people will get sick. The foreign workers are undoubtedly reducing the N, though not enough. But if they weren’t there, more people would now be sick.</p>
<p>“The governors, who recently appeared side by side to declare their resolve and strategy against the Islamic State,”</p>
<p>^ This was another initiative the two cooked up (there was no credible threats, either) with no planning at all before it was announced and no input or consultation with any of the agency heads tasked with it’s implementation. None. </p>
<p>And as an aside, did anyone happen to catch the date of the MSF protocol publication? <a href=“Ebola: "Fighting a Forest Fire With Spray Bottles"”>http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/msf-protocols-staff-returning-ebola-affected-countries</a> The day Spencer was diagnosed with ebola after returning to US soil. Do we know what the written protocol for return to work and self quarantine was before this time? Was it any different, frugaldoctor? Or was it in place and this is just a press release given the situation with Dr. Spencer (that’s my guess).</p>
<p>I have no interest in either of these two men for higher office. They are grotesque. </p>