<p>I just want to point out that although the outbreak of Ebola in Nigeria can be said to be over, that does not mean that the COUNTRY is immune. Nor do the improving situations in Sierra Leone or Guinea mean that things cannot change for the worse. If Liberia is cut off from food and fuel shipments–and I have read that there are already shortages–and food isn’t being brought to market, famine will spread and people in Liberia may flee over the borders. Every mile of dense tropical growth is not going to be controlled.</p>
<p>“The fact that it is now here could be the issue because it is now in a different operating environment than Africa. Therefore, we really have not a clue if our environment would actually be the impetus to make that genetic mutation jump. So even with a few cases here, the one special case here could be the one to stimulate the dangerous mutation.”</p>
<p>What exactly makes a genetic mutation “jump”? 
So you are saying that the virus does not mutate in Africa, but will do so with a high enogh certainty in a few patients on the US soil? How is that possible? Care to elaborate scientifically?</p>
<p>“And as far as I see, no one has debunked Hass’'s study, as not being useful for examine Ebola. In fact, doctors have looked at it and agreed with several parts, and are now looking at what Hass wrote and applying it to thinking forward about how to best contain the virus at the highest level of confidence possible.”</p>
<p>First of all, it has been less than a week since it hit the web. Second, what’s there to debunk? There is nothing evolutionary in the paper which by the way uses the standard 95% interval - which with the current epidemic, is 21 days.</p>
<p>“The focus of the above discussion has been assessing the best estimates of the incubation time distribution in order to develop a rational process for Ebola quarantine estimation. However any estimated distribution has uncertainty, e.g. as shown in Table 1. Therefore the confidence bands of the distribution (e.g., confidence limits to the upper 95th percentile of the incubation time distribution) should be estimated and used in setting a quarantine time.”</p>
<p>If the dustribution changes, then the change is the quarantine lenghth is needed - that is the conclusion. Duh. He simply sets the stage for getting more funding down the road, which is understandable. </p>
<p>There is another PLoS paper that made the headlines, though…</p>
<p><a href=“Assessing the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak – PLOS Currents Outbreaks”>http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/assessing-the-international-spreading-risk-associated-with-the-2014-west-african-ebola-outbreak/</a></p>
<p>AW, have at it! Tons of material for conspiracy theorists. </p>
<p>BTW, this is what scientists think about the politicians using their paper for pre-election fear mongering:</p>
<p><a href=“Science | AAAS”>Science | AAAS;
<p>"…Vespignani notes that cutting down on traffic is just “postponing the problem for a finite amount of time.” (The 80% drop amounts to a 3- to 4-week delay in a probable case, he says.) “This debate doesn’t have to divert the discussion from the real issue, which is to win the battle in Africa.”</p>
<p>It sounds like they are about to publish another paper on the potential effect of the travel ban. </p>
<p>As for small pox,</p>
<p><a href=“http://faculty.som.yale.edu/EdKaplan/Media_Files/MSNBC_Smallpox_Quarantine.htm”>http://faculty.som.yale.edu/EdKaplan/Media_Files/MSNBC_Smallpox_Quarantine.htm</a></p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Ebola is no less dangerous or contagious than small pox.</p>
<p>Why does the map show direct flights to the US (from Guinea?), when others are saying such direct flights do not exist?</p>
<p>Also, I assume Nigeria does not qualify as a West African country? Because it looks like there are direct flights coming from there, also.</p>
<p>“Why does the map show direct flights to the US (from Guinea?), when others are saying such direct flights do not exist?”</p>
<p>It is not flights, it is passenger flows.
The caption says:</p>
<p>“Air traffic connections from West African countries to the rest of the world. Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are not well connected outside the region. Nigeria, in contrast, being the most populous country in West Africa with more than 166 million people, is well connected to the rest of world. For historical reasons, all these countries have the strongest ties with European countries.”</p>
<p>Interesting that the country with the most direct connections to the outside world is the same country that successfully suppressed Ebola (20 cases, 8 deaths, outbreak over). </p>
<p>I love BunsenBurner</p>
<p>Look at the map in the original paper. It says “air traffic connections,” and the author of the Science article says “The authors combined this ** flight information** with equations describing likely transmission dynamics in 16 countries at highest risk of Ebola importation.”</p>
<p>If it is not depicting flight patterns, then it sure did a good job of confusing the lay reader.</p>
<p>Post #1582
This really struck a nerve with me. Isn’t it better to “postpone” the spread of Ebola to the US rather than HASTEN it?? I still can’t believe the US is still issuing visas for non-essential travel for non-us citizens out of these countries. </p>
<p>Sure. The authors took information about how many pax fly each route on average and combined that info into passenger flows between countries. There are definitely no direct flights between the US and Liberia etc. </p>
<p>On the completely unrelated Larry Craig case, the cop said one of the first signs of soliciting in the stall sex was the placement of the suitcase inside the stall. Along with the other signs. But that one made me say WHAT? Right after this all went public, I was in a stall in MSP, and this hand came under my stall. A lady asked for some tissue. I started laughing and asked her if this was some sort of Larry Craig sign. She got her tissue, but there was a lot of hilarity going on.</p>
<h1>1589 - I agree. Given the huge costs of just one imported case of Ebola.</h1>
<p>From what I can find, Nigeria <em>is</em> considered to be a West African country, and it does have direct flights to the US (remember the guy flying into JFK who died). Just for clarification.</p>
<p>LOL, Busdriver! That must have been some laugh! Thank goodness you did not have to run too far to pee! ;)</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>No. It is not. There has been a lot written about this, but to recap:</p>
<p>Banning travel will not prevent people from coming here. That’s just a fact. What it WILL do is make the people who come here almost impossible to track. As we have JUST seen with Nigeria, tracking is an indispensable part of stopping an outbreak.</p>
<p>As one expert said, “We can’t wrap cellophane around the country. It just doesn’t work that way.”</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Do we track people who come here now?</p>
<p>According the Yale study Ilinked above if it gets bad, the only way to stop is quarantine an entire city/state until it burns out on its own. The study was done in preparation for biological terrorest attack using small pox virus.</p>
<p>What study? Your link is to mass media article citing civil liberties lawyers etc. </p>
<p>So what’s your suggestion? Are you implying that we shoukd nuke Liberia because it is “really bad” in there?</p>
<p><a href=“Ebola Mutations Change Virus”>Ebola Mutations Change Virus;
<p>This article says that its unlikely that the virus will mutate to become airborne. However a mutation that changes it enough so that a vaccine becomes useless is likely. </p>
<p>It does seem that the Ebola virus has already mutated to become more virulent. And this strain seems different from the strains years ago. Those strains killed the host so quickly that the virus didn’t spread as much. The more slowly the virus kills its host, the better for the virus because it is more likely to come in contact with other hosts that way and keep spreading. </p>